Public Opinion in Russia Turns Negative

ANTI-CORRUPTION FOUNDATION

Three years have passed since the start of the full-scale war with Ukraine, and debates about how Russians feel about it continue. It’s clear that asking directly is not possible, but there are plenty of ways to pose indirect questions and interpret the answers. This is how the FBK’s sociologists operate.

In 2024, we conducted three surveys in which we asked Russians about their expectations for the future. Even before the New Year—when people traditionally become more optimistic—the number of pessimists rose noticeably. People speak less and less about “stability.”

 Many claim that Russians have “gotten used to” the war. Our data suggests the opposite: patience is wearing thin, and people sense growing instability. This is clear from how quickly the feeling of having “everything under control” is disappearing.

No matter how often TV channels repeat that Putin has a “plan” and that everything is under his control, Russians see growing anxiety all around them.

We’ve long been asking: “How should any extra budget revenue be spent?” Even in 2022, the share of people favoring more military spending never exceeded 20%. In 2024, it hovers around 10%. By contrast, many more are calling for higher salaries and pensions.

We see the most striking difference when we ask whether people would choose a new wave of mobilization or ending the “Special Military Operation.” Five times more respondents would prefer to end the war rather than send more people to the front!t!

We also asked a “verification” question about how people perceive the views of those around them. It turned out that even staunch “Z-supporters” realize they are in the minority.

In summary: Russian society appears to be on the brink of significant change. Anxiety and the sense of instability are both on the rise. Only about one-eighth of the population truly supports an indefinite continuation of the war. The notion that “everyone supports the war” simply doesn’t stick—most people know it’s not true.

All of this research comes from the FBK’s Polls & Surveys Department, established by Alexei Navalny. The department’s head, Anna Biryukova, recorded a detailed video (with English subtitles):

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Navalny’s team