"All models are wrong, but some are useful". George E. P. Box
The model below about 47 and the year 2025 will be useful.
47 appears to follow the Soviet/Russian playbook on insurrection as outlined by a former KGB agent Yuri Bezmenov in 1984; see the interview here: 'FULL INTERVIEW with Yuri Bezmenov: The Four Stages of Ideological Subversion (1984)' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yErKTVdETpw]
Its goal states simply that Democratic forms of government with effective elections should be overthrown by any means necessary and a tyranny installed to thwart the will of the people.
Stage 1 in this model is to alter the intellectual construct of the society under attack so that intellectual activity is shaped over an entire generation to an intellectual construct favoring the attacker. That may have begun as early as the 1970's with an adaptation of the Boomer ethos: the 'man' cannot be trusted and we have to rebel wherever we can. That trend has been reinforced by the social media silo-ing of intellectual discussion and thought into two radically opposed camps with no ability to discuss or agree on what the best actions may be.
Part of that plan is to sow distrust in the media and the facts about our world. That has been successful. See Hannah Arendt below on lying:
"This constant lying is not aimed at making the people believe a lie, but at ensuring that no one believes anything anymore.
A people that can no longer distinguish between truth and lies cannot distinguish between right and wrong.
And such a people, deprived of the power to think and judge, is, without knowing and willing it, completely subjected to the rule of lies.
With such a people, you can do whatever you want."
Hannah Arendt - (14 October 1906 – 4 December 1975) German historian and philosopher
Stage 2 in this model is to create one or more drastic crises which convulse society and cost many lives. The Covid pandemic of 2020 is an example of such a crisis. 47's Cabinet choices pave the way for more crises on several fronts. It takes only one severe crisis but we now have the possibility of several in different directions. This stage may take only a few months to achieve as opposed to the generational shift described earlier.
Perhaps under 47 we might see another pandemic with zero vaccines available or underway due to 47's mistrust of vaccines. In a world with no trustworthy information we can se the possibility of mass panic.
Or, we probably will see another assault on the Houses of Congress to capture the government in a coup. 47's goons will be released from jail and probably willing to try again.
Or, we will lack the ability to counter Russian actions effectively because the DNI is a Russian agent who will help disable our defenses.
Or, our Secretary of Defense will read some situations incorrectly and exacerbate a volatile situation that a seasoned person could have avoided. Ukraine and the EU vs. Russia ? Iran vs Israel ? Hezbollah vs Israel ?
The possibilities are endless.
Stage 3 is the direct coup with force directed against our critical democratic institutions so that they will fall to 47 and his goons. They will suspend the Constitution and declare Martial Law.
If the 47 mob organizes and attacks with force they may succeed in capturing the basic institutions of the USA. 47 here may be relying on the idea that he can gather enough force to overwhelm existing defenders of the Police and National Guard to capture the institutions.
This stage can take mere days. If the world is in convulsion with one or more crises and angry mobs venting everywhere, an organized and disciplined force can capture existing institutions with almost no one noticing.
