Super Tuesday

As the race tightens and Obama makes some headway, it is easy to lose sight of the ball: Hillary will win.

Here's why:

1. Demographics. Obama won South Carolina by getting some 70% of the black voters and about 25% of the white voters. Among the white voters, he gained a lot of voters under 30. But the state is 50% black. A CNN analyst projected the South Carolina numbers nationally and found that Hillary has the edge from her winning a majority of white voters and about 25% of black voters.

2. Issues: When adults look seriously at Obama's issues, the issues' shallowness is apparent. See below. He has created a share of the population who really don't like on a visceral level to listen to him.


3. Momentum: He has some now because Hillary is giving him a pass on negative ads. It's time to bring up some troubling issues about him to slow his momentum. This time the issues should be from Hillary and not from The Bill.

[The following needs serious fact checking before going live.]

a. Iraq: "I voted for the senate resolution because I judged that it was the best thing for the United States of America based on the facts I had at the time. Most other senators agreed with me because it passed xx to xx.

Senator Obama made a speech condemning the war in 2002. I congratulate him for that speech. But, it is not enough to be right. Just being right doesn't help our great country if it is not followed by action. Senator Obama did not act on his conviction by voting against the bill. In fact he voted present/didn't show up. Then, he later voted in favor of two bills supporting the war. I ask you, do we want a man in the Oval Office who doesn't stand up for what he believes. I think we do not."

b. Old vs. New: Senator Obama has made a public pronouncement that it is time to throw out the old and install the new. What does that mean?

Does it mean that we need to forcibly retire older people? If so, how old does the senator think a person is when he or she is no longer useful? Is it 65? 75? 85? When does a person lose his or her right to contribute to America Senator?

Or maybe it means that our political process is too old and needs changing. Is that it Senator? Does our constitution need to be scrapped? Does our system of checks and balances that has served us well since 1789 need to be thrown out. What about it Senator Obama? What should we install to replace our Constitution?

c. Baby Boomer Issues: Senator Obama has said that it is time to stop fighting baby boomer issues and move on to something else. The last time I looked, Senator Obama at the age of 46 is in fact a baby boomer. OK, we will let him renounce his generation. I don't know why he wants to do that, but I suppose he can if he wants. Maybe he wants to be younger. Gee, Senator, I would like to be 30 again, but it is not going to happen.

So what are the 'Baby Boomer' issues he is tired of fighting? Is it the Vietnam War? Are you tired of dealing with Vietnam veterans issues Senator?

It is true; a lot of veterans from that war have serious problems. But, I for one do not think that we should turn our backs on them. To borrow a phrase from Governor Huckabee, we are a better nation that that, Senator.

Or maybe he is tired of dealing with Social Security and Medicare. Is that it, Senator? Would you prefer to not bother with those issues?

Well, Senator, the President does not get to choose the issues which challenge the country. She has to represent all the people in the country and deal with all the issues affecting the country. It is a hard job, Senator, as Bush found out. If you are having second thoughts about it, just let me know.

d. Washington DC: The Senator has said that the system in Washington is broken and needs to be fixed. We actually agree here and I have made several specific proposals on how to fix the system which you can read on my website www.hillaryclinton.com

But, Senator, there are hundreds of thousands of patriotic Americans in Washington DC who have devoted their lives to making our country better by working within the political system. You disrespect them by saying that the entire system is broken and needs to be scrapped. I don't agree with many of the people in Washington, but I respect their patriotism and work with them to solve our country's issues every day.

Here's a question for you Senator: How can you bring our country together if you start by insulting the people you have to work with to change our country?

The only way that could work is if they recognize that your insults are just political rhetoric and do not hold it against you. So, how about it Senator, are your insults to people in DC just empty rhetoric?

e. Politics of Division: Senator Obama has said that his is a new politics of inclusiveness that rejects the old politics of personal attacks and divisiveness.

But, senator Obama, you have personally attacked me very frequently and you take great pains to set yourself apart from the existing system. Seems it seems to me that you are actively practicing the politics of division at the same time you are saying that you are not. I am confused Senator. Which is it?

f. Change: Senator Obama has argued that he is the best person to bring about change in government.

HELLO! I'm a WOMAN. I'll fire all of George Bush's political hacks and hire real, knowledgeble regulators to protect the American people first and corporations second. I'll implement my ten point plan to fight corruption within 90 days. I'll send normal American people to meet with foreign governments and restore our reputation in the world. And that's just a start; go to my website for my multi-faceted plan for change.

L.A. Debate

Question: "Who won?"

Answer: it wasn't about winning - it was about the base.

Hillary didn't offend her base and offered specific, competent policy proposals that will help our country.

Obama appealed to his base with vaguely threatening and opaque appeals to throw out the older people, bring in hope and trust him to give you whatever you want.

We'll see.

Florida

Big win for Hillary in Florida. Let's get the convention to accept the delegates from Florida and Michigan.

Good momentum for Super-Dooper Tuesday.

It's possible that Obama will get the nod - if Obama is the nominee I will volunteer to work hard for him by highlighting his apparent shortcomings so he may become a stronger candidate- any Dem is better than any Rep. Of course, he may very well suggest that when he wants my opinion he will give it to me. Que sera, que sera.

Obama creates a very negative impression among some voters that is not about his race. It seems to be about his oratorical style. It turns off many people. No idea about numbers or percentages - this is just an anecdotal impression.

South Carolina

Obama won a victory in South Carolina he needed and expected.

But, I have to confess that his passive aggresive attacks on Hillary are annoying - conducting business as usual while condemning business as usual.

For example, from his victory speech [see at http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/26/obama.transcript/?iref=hpmostpop]:


"......And in nine days, in nine short days, nearly half the nation will have the chance to join us in saying that we are tired of business as usual in Washington. We are hungry for change and we are ready to believe again.....

...It's a status quo that extends beyond any particular party and right now that status quo is fighting back with everything it's got, with the same old tactics that divide and distract us from solving the problems people face, whether those problems are health care that folks can't afford or a mortgage they cannot pay....

...So this will not be easy. Make no mistake about what we're up against. We're up against the belief that it's all right for lobbyists to dominate our government, that they are just part of the system in Washington...."

Neat trick. Here's hoping voters will see through the denial.

My wife is Russian and his speech reminded her of a communist rally exhorting the troops to attack something.

It's a long campaign and it is not over.