Our Future Under Trump

Hillary, My Liege:

In case you need some talking points to convince voters to vote for you: here are some events which will happen if Trump wins the election and lives to take the Oath.

RECESSION: PROBABILITY 100%

Massive recession caused by bankers within 2 years will raise unemployment to 2008 levels of 10% or higher from its current level of less than 5%. Home foreclosures will also rise to 2008 levels. We are currently at or near the Holy Grail of economic policy - Full Employment equilibrium. The probability of this Recession is 100% due to Trump's actions of eliminating bank regulations and the fact that the same people who caused the 2008 Recession are still controlling our banking system.

A diversion will be that the interest rate we must pay on T-Bills will rise due to Trump's threat to renegotiate our national debt. The extra interest we must pay to borrow will further destabilize out Federal national budget and threaten both Social Security and Medicare.

WAR: PROBABILITY 100%

American troops will engage in at least one ground war and perhaps two within 2 years of his taking the Oath. The wars will be in the Middle East and Eastern Europe or the South China Sea. We will fight Russia in Syria and perhaps Europe if our NATO Allies are invaded by Putin. We are also likely to fight China over territorial claims in the South China Sea. Our enemies will take actions due to Trump's perceived naiveté and over reaction to provocations designed to test his character. Every new president faces these tests from foreign governments; Trump will overreact.

PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY: PROBABILITY 80%

Calls to privatize Social Security will lead to reconsideration of that question. Additional pressure will be provided by the interest rate increases we face due to Trump's threat as discussed above. The resulting impact on the Federal budget will lead to calls to eliminate Social Security from the Budget. Or, at the least, Social Security pensions will be reduced. If successful, this will result in massive poverty and misery among the elderly.

PRIVATIZE HEALTH CARE: PROBABILITY 80%

Initiatives to manage health care costs will be reversed leading to massive cost increases and private insurance companies reaping record profits at the expense of the ill among us.

PRIVATIZE EDUCATION: PROBABILITY 75%

Trump's administration will attempt to reduce federal funding to all levels of education and all student aid programs. If successful this program will cripple our national ability for economic growth by stifling new research and invention.

TAX REDUCTION ON WEALTHY: PROBABILITY 80%

Taxes will be reduced on the wealthy. The resulting budget deficit increase will result in calls for cutting for reducing payments through the Social Security system.

MASSIVE DOLLAR DEVALUATION: PROBABILITY 60%

Any such devaluation will make our economy even more precarious since the cost of our imports would skyrocket. Additionally, the real value of dollar denominated savings will plummet. There is already a massive overhang of dollars in world markets and any action to reduce the value of dollar denominated assets - like T-Bills - will increase pressure on the dollar. Additionally, the BRIC's are looking to form an alternative payment system for oil and any success in that effort will lead to further dollar pressure.