There is an 80% to 90% probability that domestic USA terrorists will violently attack State government facilities during both the 2022 AND 2024 elections.
They will likely attack two or three election vote counting locations and State capitol buildings. It may happen in States where Republican majorities control both houses of the State legislature.
The early attacks can serve as a test of the protective systems installed by the National Guard and Police. If protection is weak and attackers succeed OR escape with few arrests and little physical harm, then terrorists may see that as a message: the US will not protect the rule of law against violence. Any such message can encourage more attacks.
The goal of these attacks will be to call into question the legitimacy of the election process and results.
That can be an excuse for overturning all elections and installing unelected officials in critical positions.
The USA should prepare to treat such attacks as acts of war.
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