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Saturday, May 28, 2011

Cutting taxes: a cruel joke, defers big tax burden onto kids

Hey Barry

Reagan's budget director David Stockman - the no B S guy - says that our failure to tax rich folks is killing us.

Read it here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/reagan-insider-gop-destroyed-us-economy-part-2-2011-05-24

Holy cow.

Your pal,

Friday, May 27, 2011

Ten Country Economic Analyses Published

Hey Barry:

The McKeever Institute of Economic Policy Analysis [MIEPA] is pleased to announce the publication on its website [www.mkeever.com] of detailed studies of economic policies for The United States of America, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Vietnam and Spain in addition to the analysis of Tunisia's economy published earlier.

The United States is analyzed by four specialists: Andrew Majoulet, Thaibinh Tran, Jeremiah Taylor and Sean Cox.

Vietnam is analyzed by three specialists: Tram Lu, Tran Nguyen and Khoa Le.

Hong Kong is analyzed by specialist Karen Hoi Nga Leung.

Spain is analyzed by specialist Eduardo Fernandez Ferrero.

Tunisia was analyzed in April by specialist Khaled Bouker.

Best regards,

Mike P. McKeever
MIEPA
www.mkeever.com

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Middle East Security and Stagflation

Hey Barry:

Loved your speech on the Middle East. Now we're ahead of the curve.

Just remember one definition of a pioneer: He's the one who walks in front of the wagon train and gets shot in the back with arrows.

It means you won't get a lot of sympathy: current governments feel the heat and ordinary people are too busy trying to get enough food and, maybe, a job.

But, our national security is better because we're on the right side. It's good that the religious fundamentalist approach to social problems is dying away. Fewer folks will try to blow up Americans now; there'll still be some, but not so many new ones.

Biggest problem is to deliver food and jobs to the people. We can help by reigning in the FED in its flooding the world with new dollars. All that is doing now is driving speculation in commodities, raising the cost of living and threatening the recovery. Just too much money in too few hands, Barry. It's a big problem.

I can remember the oil induced stagflation of the 70's - it was ugly.

Your pal

Friday, May 13, 2011

Scary Effects of Static Debt

[Lost from site and reposted.]

Hey Barry:

Let's try taking Boehner at his word and see what will happen. After all, he appears convinced that the Tea Party idea of not raising the debt ceiling is a good one.

Here's a likely scenario:

1. We cannot sell any more T-Bills;

2. We can spend only what we collect in tax revenue;

3. That's a 30% reduction in the revenue shown in your 2012 Budget;

4. Let's continue following Boehner, so we won't raise any taxes and we'll reduce expenditures by 30% or $1.1 trillion and we'll do it across the Board;

5. But, wait a minute - since we won't raise taxes and cannot borrow, we will be taking $1.1 trillion out of the economy;

6. That will reduce GDP by some $4 trillion more or less because of the Aggregate Demand multiplier effect;

7. GDP will drop from a forecast $15 trillion to $11 trillion - that's a 25% drop in GDP;

8. A 25% GDP drop is very similar to the GDP drop in the Great Depresssion;

9. We would expect great increases in human misery and social problems - 25% unemployment, increases in crime, violence, and drug abuse - from the GDP drop alone;

10. Also, the drop in GDP would reduce tax revenue, so that government spending would have to be reduced even further, creating an ever descending whirlpool of depression and social misery;

11. Additionally, in the beginning, Defense, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending would drop by the 30% revenue reduction just to balance the budget - our national defense would be 30% weaker;

12. Since we could no longer pay interest on the outstanding debt, we would not be able to borrow in the future, even if we wanted to;

13. State and local governments would also see large budget shortfalls from the depression and lost tax revenues, leading them to cut security and education spending;

14. With a lack of police and security personnel, we would see a great increase in terrorism;

15. With a lack of schools, we would see great increases in gang activity - basically, no neighborhood will be safe from violence;

16. Due to reduced budgets and increased violence in the Homeland, we would call all troops back from foreign countries to provide order at home;

17. We would lose two wars to the Taliban and Al-Queda - and we would retreat from the war on terror;

18. With no effective American presence, countries like Iran and Syria would be free to take over Iraq and attack Israel.

This is the future the Tea Party wants for us.

I hope you don't agree, Barry.

Your pal,

Monday, May 9, 2011

E U Debt Crisis Coming

Hey Barry:

We are having a debt problem in the USA - the EU may be joining us soon. It's not for sure, but needs watching.

Countries in the Euro zone mostly have sovereign debt problems from financing social programs with debt.

If some of them go - that is, if several countries have financial crises like ours - look for another worldwide recession.

We are all in the same boat now; when one sinks, we all drown.

Y'all can read it here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/09/businesspro-us-eurozone-crisis-communica-idUSTRE74836T20110509

Here's the thing: banks.

No surprise here Barry.

If we don't corral the bankers, they will just make things worse by profiting from disaster. Not just US bankers, either; I mean all of them.

Greedy bankers pass the laws they want in every country so they can make billions while the rest of us can just 'eat cake' if we don't like it, just like Marie Antoinette said.

I'd really like to say that we are leading the world in reforming bankers and helping average folks; but I can't say that. Our bankers are right there with the leaders in passing laws that help themselves at our expense.

Brings a grown man a tear.

Your pal,

Friday, May 6, 2011

UPDATE 7.22.11: Bogeyman America?

Hey Barry

It's good that OBL is gone - nobody will miss him and we'll feel safer.

But, Barry, one commentator on TV said something that's a little distrubing. I recall hearing a comment to the effect that Americans think the OBL killing was a one time event, but in reality we have teams in war zones that do this two or three times per night. Perhaps I heard it wrong, but I don't think so.

So, Barry, if I get this right, we sneak into people's houses and kill them - and anyone else who gets in the way - about 700 times or more every year.

This is not the American way, Barry, not at all.

Sneaking into houses in the dark makes us into the Bogeyman, Barry; it can go a long way to explaining why some people hate us.

Here's Petraeus on the tactic: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/07/commando-killed-taliban-so/#more-52288

I don't want to live in Bogeyman Country Barry. I want to live in America.

Y'all can tell I've never been on either end of that gun - and I don't want to be, ever. Still, I can comment, Barry; it's Free Speech.

In America, we have processes and protections so we make sure that accused people have every chance to defend themselves. If they cannot defend themselves, then we go ahead and execute them.

Lotta folks will complain about that: "it's a war and we have to protect ourselves. If we give these killers processes and rights, then we will be less safe."

Totally got that we are in a war.

But, there must be a dfifferent choice somewhere. Can't imagine that the only choices are to bomb the house or sneak in and kill people.

First question is this: What kind of evidence do we have that justifies taking a life? And, if there is evidence, then that evidence can be presented to some jury or court somewhere. Maybe an international war crimes court.

Or, maybe we surround the house and tell the occupants that they have five minutes to surrender or we will bomb the house.

I'm sure there are better choices, Barry, we need to find some.

Of course, all that will cost a little more. Process and democracy are not cheap.

But, in the long run, it is a cost we should bear.

Because we are America.

Your pal,

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Chickenhawk Torturers Dishonor America

Hey Barry:

Y'all know this, but don't pay no mind to the chickenhawks calling for more torture. It did not work and it will not work. All it does is stain the values which keep America in one piece.

The best news coming is that now we have all OBL's data - we know all he knew: names, places, dates and plans.

Already Al Queda is running scared. Khaled Hathal Abdullah al-Atifi al-Qahtani just turned himself in to the Saudi's.

Read it here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/05/04/international/i072431D01.DTL

Itsa good day, Barry.

Your pal,

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Saturday, April 30, 2011

2012 - Turning the Boat

Hey Barry:

2012 will shape the future of the country. We can make good or bad choices about our future.

Not a surprise.

Here's my list of the critical issues we will decide:

Reduce OR continue the Class War against the Middle Class. We will choose to keep OR dismantle Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and collective bargaining by either reducing taxes on the rich while reducing benefits OR, alternatively, keep benefits constant by raising taxes on the rich.

Ignore corruption resulting from the increasing power and influence of billionaires OR reduce their influence by increasing income and estate taxes dramatically.

Cause a major depression by failing to approve the debt ceiling increase OR approve the increase and work out our problems.

Fund OR dismantle Health Insurance. We will choose to keep OR dismantle your health care program. Sadly I do not think expanding health care is possible.

Ignore energy problems until markets cause severe disruptions OR continue funding energy alternatives.

Keep OR expand financial system regulation. The current system allows future bubbles and crashes; it needs work.

Keep on our current foreign policy course of sympathy for world's poor thereby improving our national security OR return to supporting brutal regimes thereby harming our national security.

Ignore our infrastructure deterioration OR increase taxes and build for the future.

Manage our trade and industrial policies for the benefit of our workers OR continue ignoring the problems our policies create.

Grow our GDP so that our debt is more manageable OR ignore the problem until the debt becomes unmanageable and interest consumes our tax reveue until defense and social security are endangered.

Y'all have your own list, of course.

Point is simple: We don't have any room for mistakes. No room.

No pressure Barry.

Your pal,

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Jesus Would Raise Taxes

Hey Barry:

Our progressive income tax system - where folks with higher incomes pay a higher percentage - seems to be based on the Bible and Jesus' teachings.

Lawrence O'Donnell on msnbc gave a Bible lesson the other day, where he discussed Christian principles about taxes in response to a Rush Limbaugh quote.

Some of that discussion is reproduced below.

'O`DONNELL: I, for one, believe that asking the question, what would Jesus do is the way into a more thoughtful discussion than Rush`s obsession with the question, "what would Jesus take?"

But the New Testament does have an answer to Rush`s question, what would Jesus take. And it`s not one Rush is going to like. And since he obviously has no working command of the Bible, it will surely shock him, because he will be hearing it now for the first time.

To the question of, what would Jesus take, the answer is, everything.

Not 35 percent, not 39.6 percent, 100 percent.

In the New Testament`s "Gospel of St. Mark," a man approaches Jesus and asks him, "what shall I do to inherit eternal life?" And Jesus said to him, "go and sell all your possessions and give to the poor and you will have treasure in heaven."

Now, I suppose you could interpret that as go and sell all of your possessions and give some of the proceeds to the poor. But it would be equally reasonable to say, go and sell all of your possessions and give all of your proceeds to the poor.

I lean toward the give all of your proceeds to the poor interpretation, but I don`t do so with absolute certainty, nor would I use that line as Christ-based argument for a particular tax bracket. But it seems very clear that Jesus would be cool with a 39.6 percent tax bracket for people making over 250,000 dollars.

And how was Jesus` advice taken by the man who asked him what he should do to inherit eternal life? Well, it was as if Jesus was talking to Rush. As the story continues in the "Gospel According to St. Mark," "but at these words, he was saddened and he went away grieving, for he was one who owned much property. And Jesus looking around said to his disciples, `how hard it will be for those who are wealthy to enter the kingdom of God. It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.`

That`s not the only clue we have in the New Testament about what would Jesus take. Jesus also said, "any of you who does not give up everything he has cannot be my disciple."

That means you, Rush. And that means everything. Give up everything. Those are the words of Jesus Christ. Give up everything. You can be a radio talk show host and you can make your 50 million dollars a year. But you cannot do that and be a disciple of Christ if you keep al of your 50 million dollars a year.

While Jesus may not have specified specific tax brackets, he was the first recorded advocate of a progressive income tax. Jesus actually said, "I tell you the truth, this poor widow has put more into the treasury than all the others. They all gave out of their wealth, but she, out of her poverty, put in everything, all she had to live on."

What would Jesus take? Obviously, he would take from each according to their ability to pay. That is the clear Christian philosophical basis of a progressive income tax; 10 percent on low incomes, 35 percent on high incomes is the current structure.

And if it were up to me, much, much higher percentages on even higher incomes. Now, in holy books as long as the Bible, it is common to find conflicting citations. A quote here to make one point and then a quote there to make the opposite point.

Now, Rush, I know you didn`t bother to do any Bible reading before your silly "what would Jesus take" outburst, and I now invite you and your staff to take as long as you want to try to find a passage anywhere of Jesus sympathizing with rich people for having paid too much taxes, or for having been too generous, or for having been forced by anyone, by the state, by Caesar, by anyone, forced to be too generous.

Take your time. I`m here every night. I`m ready to respond whenever you come up with anything, a word, anything, that you think Jesus said that in any way suggests there is such a thing as an overburdened rich person, overburdened by societal obligation, overburdened by obligation to neighbor, the very neighbor that Jesus instructs the rich person to love.

"When the son of man shall come in his glory, all the holy angels with him, then shall he sit upon the throne of his glory. And before him shall be gathered all nations and he shall separate them, one from another, as a shepherd divideth his sheeps from the goats. Then shall the king said unto them on his right-hand, come, you blessed of my father, inherent the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world, for I was hungry and you gave me meat.

"I was thirsty and you gave me drink. I was a stranger and you took me in and you clothed me. I was sick and you visited me. I was in prison and you came unto me.

"Then shall the righteous answer him, saying, lord, when did we see you hungry and fed you, or thirsty and gave you drink? When did we see you a stranger and take you in, or naked and clothed you? And when did we see you sick or in prison and came unto you?

"And the king shall answer and say unto them, verily, I say unto you, in as much as you have doneth unto one of the least of my brethren, you have done it unto me.

"Then shall he say also unto them, on the left hand, depart from me you cursed ones into everlasting fire prepared for the devil and his angels, for I was hungry and you gave me no meat. I was thirsty and you gave me no drink. I was a stranger and you did not take me in naked and did not clothe me, sick, and in prison and you did not visit me.

"Then shall they also answer him, saying, `Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison and did not minister unto you?` Then shall he answer them saying, `verily, I say unto you, in as much as you did not do it for one of the at least of these, you did not do it for me.

"And these will go away into eternal punishment, but the righteous into eternal life."

Rush, Jesus Christ`s instructions to you could not be more specific. You can follow Christ`s path to righteousness or you can follow the path of the damned. The choice is yours. As you sit back in full recline on your Gulfstream on the way to golf tournaments and you ponder which path to take, you might consider doing Jesus Christ the favor of never again lying about what he said.'

Your pal,

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Selling Obama

Hey Barry:

Seems that a few of the opinion polls on your re-election campaign tell us that most voters agree with your positions on the big issues - tax the rich, save Social Security and medicare, and so on - but that you get a low rating.

Does not make sense, Barry, but facts is facts.

Well, public opinion manipulation is not my thing, but maybe a lesson from advertising can help a little. Just a thought. Course the idea is 'bleedin' obvious.

You are a commodity Barry: you're way past being Barack Obama. Now we all think that you are going to save or mess up my personal financial future, keep us out of wars and fix my breakfast just right.

Itsa big job.

But we're all glad that you want it for another term.

Why not borrow an idea from product marketing - product differentiation. And, as a bonus, you can throw in a little fear. Seems that conservative brains are hard wired to respond to fear, so why nor use that? Here's a link to read about it: http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/morford/ for April 20, 2011

Of course you are doing a lot of this now and it is a good idea. I am just suggesting you keep it up until voters associate you personally with the policies they like.

For example, say this: 'Here's what I'll do as your President: I'll save Medicare just as it is. But if the Republicans get into power, they will kill Medicare. They will force old people to buy private insurance with their own money.

As your President, I'll save Social Security for you and your grandchildren. But if the Republicans have control they will privatize Social Security and give all the money to Wall Street bankers. Old people will be homeless and begging on the street, just like in the 1930's.' [Never mind that it is already happening today. I just gave an old white guy $20 because he said it was his 70th birthday and he wanted to rent a hotel room for the night. Mebbe it was a scam, but he got to me.]

'As your President I'll tax the rich folks and balance the budget. But if the Republicans get into power they will give tax breaks to billionaires and force retired people to pay more for health insurance.'

We're with you Barry. I can't attend a $10,000 fund raiser, but I'll do what I can.

Your pal,

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

UPDATE 4.20.11 - Even FOX News Favors Taxing Rich ! !

Holy Cow, Barry;

Even FOX NEWS is calling for more taxes on the RICH in addition to spending cuts.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4654391/should-the-wealthy-pay-more-taxes/?playlist_id=86858

Truly, pigs are flying.

****************************

Caught you on video about deficit reduction in the next few years.

It is all good and we need it as a country. You totally caught our spirit and social compact.

Wait for it: Here comes the the 'but', Barry.

To get it done you'll have to face down some world class whiners and crooks.

It's another defining moment. It will take some serious chops.

There are some doubts about it Barry, I can't lie.

The question is: can you stop the crooked money machine?

The jury is out on it.

We are all rooting for you and we want to help.

We'll be happy to propagandize all over hell's half acre, if that will help. Or, we will shut up and let you work mysterious back room magic.

Pretty sure this is the last chance we have to keep the dream alive.

No pressure, Barry.

Your pal,

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Raise Taxes - We In It Together

Hey Barry

So, here's the thing. It's such a thing that I gotta put on my favorite jeans and talk like this cuz if'n I don't y'all won't hear me.

Listen up, Barry. Y'all gonna have to tax some folks next year. Thas right, you gonna have to raise taxes.

Y'all can raise 'em on me or you can raise 'em on the RICH or you can raise 'em on all of us.

But, bottom line is simple, taxes gotta go up.

Now them Reps have bamboozled a lotta folks into thinkin that tax raises don't exist any more.

Well, guess what. They do.

There are things we gotta pay for, Barry. And, after we have cut all we can and borrowed all we can, then we gotta raise taxes.

Is jes simple rithmetic, Barry.

As of now, we have cut taxes too far. Steve Forbes an all them keep remindin us that Reagan cut taxes and we had a big boom.

Well, Barry, Reagan's dead.

The last time we tried to cut taxes on RICH we got this here recession.

So, who you gonna tax Barry?

Us poor and middle class don't got nothin to tax no more.

You gonna have to go after the RICH.

Tell 'em it's the patriotic thing to do. After all, if there was no America, they'd be poor like the rest of us.

And Barry, here's the last thing, if we don't raise taxes on the RICH and help out the poor and the middle, the RICH gonna be poor too. They'll be nobody to buy the crap they sellin.

We in it together, whether we like it or not.

Your pal,

Saturday, April 9, 2011

China Adds Retirement, Health Care

Hey Barry:

Seems that China is having some good times in their economy. In fact, they are going to introduce health care and a retirement system for their workers in their next five year plan.

Y'all can read about it here: http://www.mkeever.com/china.html

Kinda makes me wonder why we are debating dropping both health care and a retirement system for American workers at the same time China is planning to add them.

Do you think it may have something to do with our trade balance with China?

Mebbe it could, Barry, mebbe it could.

At least it is worth thinking about.

Your pal,

Saturday, April 2, 2011

U S Class War, 3 - Fighting Back

Hey Barry:

I think we're awake now......

Cops do it.

Firefighters do it.

Even teachers in the spring do it.

We all get it.

We get that the RICH are taking even what we have left.

They took our jobs to China, our houses to foreclosure, our roads and bridges to ruin, our schools to disaster and now they want our pensions, our medical care and our collective bargaining rights.

But, Barry, we are going to fight them.

We are going to fight them hard.

This is our country, Barry.

It does NOT belong to the RICH.

We will recall them, sue them, impeach them and vote them out.

So, Barry, if you are with us, then you need to start governing from the left.

You tried the middle and all we, and you, got was screwed.

Time to turn left, Barry.

Listen to the voters and decide where we are going. The link and transcript below may help you.

First, here's a link to a column by Paul Farrell titled: Tax The Super Rich Now or Face A Revolution:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tax-the-super-rich-now-or-face-a-revolution-2011-03-29?pagenumber=1

And, below is a long exerpt from the Cenk Uygur show on MSNBC of April 1 which details some of today's citizen's actions:

Your pal,

MSNBC LIVE WITH CENK UYGUR for April 1, 2011
Cenk Uygur


WISCONSIN

All right. One down, seven to go. Wisconsin Democrats say they have officially begun to recall the first republican senator after Governor Scott Walker`s union-busting bill passed. They`re not messing around. We`ll show you why that state senator is actually in a world of trouble and tell you if there are more recalls on the way. The battle has been joined. And some hypocrisy you won`t believe. Or maybe you will after we tell you it involves Florida Governor Rick Scott. And this one has a particularly cruel twist.

UYGUR: Republicans be aware. Today, the backlash inspired by the conservative crackdowns on unions enters a whole new chapter. See those eight people? They`re the eight republican state senators in Wisconsin whom Democrats have bowed to recall because of their anti-union votes. Well, not that recall effort has officially begun. Democrats say, they`ve collected the signatures required to recall the first of those state senators, Dan Kapanke. And they`re filing the petition today. The filing begins a 31-day review period of the signatures. An election could be held this summer. Votes have consequences. Those consequences are on the way for Mr. Kapanke.

By the way, the situation for him is seriously dire. A political scientist at the University of Wisconsin Madison says, Kapanke is the quote, "only one of those Republicans who looks like they`re situated in a democratic-leaning district." In a pole last month showed that 57 percent of those in Kapanke`s own district would vote for a generic someone else. By the way, you should know the move on commissioned that poll but it was done by a professional polling organization. But given all this, hanky panke Kapanke looks like he`s in a lot of trouble. Yes, I know, I just gave him that nickname. It`s a vice I share with George Bush. It doesn`t speak well of me.

OHIO

All right. Meanwhile, it`s new ball game in Ohio as well. Governor John Kasich signed an anti-union bill into law yesterday, that`s even harsher than the one in Wisconsin stripping collective bargaining rights from roughly 350,000 public workers. But if Democrats can collect just over 250,000 signatures in the next 90 days, that bill does not go into effect. Instead it goes to a referendum. And Ohio voters get to vote on it. And guess what? Polls show that Ohio voters definitely do not like the measure. Fifty four percent in favor, 35 percent against. That`s according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. But the really bad news for Republicans is that the backlash isn`t just in Wisconsin and Ohio. It`s everywhere. We`ve told you about plummeting poll numbers for republican governors who backed anti-union measures including Walker, Kasich and Chris Christie. They`re all dropping.

UNIONS AND POLLS

Now, a new Gallup poll shows that 48 percent of the Americans side with state employee labor unions in these disputes and only 39 percent agree with the governors. And check this out. As Politico pointed out in November, a Hart Research poll showed 47 percent of the building trade union members describing themselves as Democrats. Twenty five percent as Republicans. In January, 63 percent called themselves Democrats and only 18 percent went to Republicans. Now, that`s a significant shift. And that was even before the Wisconsin and Ohio bills passed. But the news just keeps getting worse and worse for Republicans.

COPS AND FIREFIGHTERS FIGHT BACK

It now appears that even police and firefighter unions are jumping from the republican ship. Cops and firefighters, remember, those are the two unions, they were actually exempted from the Wisconsin bill. The president of the Ohio Association of professional firefighters says, some republican members have actually apologized for supporting John Kasich. Quote, "they are never voting that way again." And today, the backlash is spreading the Pennsylvania, a state where anti-union measures are even on the table yet. Almost, 3,000 of union coal mine workers from several states staged a rally today in Pennsylvania, an early warning signal to any and all conservatives bent on taking the fight elsewhere. Look, they get it. This republican attack is against them, the workers in this country, the middle class. And they have decided they`re going to fight back.

All right. Joining me now is Tim Burga, he`s president of the Ohio AFL-CIO, and Chuck Canterbury, national president of the Fraternal Order of Police. Chuck, let me start with you. The cops were exempted in the Wisconsin bill, why are you joining this fight and why are you so animated by it?

CHUCK CANTERBURY, FRATERNAL ORDER POLICE:

We`re joining the fight because Wisconsin was just the first. Ohio`s bill SP5 that`s passed this week, it`s a terrible official legislation that rolls back, the police labor movement 30 years in Ohio. And we`re not going to stand for it. We`re going to stand up and let the American public know that we`re not the evil doers, we`re the police officers, the firefighters and the teachers that live in their communities. So, we`re going to continue to stand up, get the numbers up from the people as you`ve said earlier in your intro, the American public supports us. We`ve just got to get our message out.

UYGUR: You know, of course, a lot of people supported the Republicans before, Chuck, I want to stay with you for a second, what made you change your mind here? What woke you up, if you will?

CANTERBURY: Well, this isn`t about bipartisan issue or a republican or democrat issue. This is an issue of the police officers in this country standing up for those that stand up for us. Right now, the republican governors around the country have decided to point an X on us as a target. And we`re going to have to use our voices on our votes to answer back. That`s going to cause us to lean towards people that support our causes.

UYGUR: All right. Tim, talk to me about how much these republican governors might have ironically helped the AFL-CIO by showing people, how against the workers they really are.

TIM BURGA, PRESIDENT, AFL-CIO: All right.

Good evening, Cenk. And President Canterbury is right. There is a tremendous outpouring of opposition against Senate bill 5, because it`s being seen as a politically motivated attempt to scapegoat police officers, nurses, firefighters and teachers for the economic challenges of the day. And what Senate bill 5 will do, and Ohioans are seeing this, is going to punish all working families, and to take away worker rights. And not only is a galvanized union men and women, but it also has all working families, and the general public up and arms, and we`re very confident that we`re going to get this issue on a ballot, and there will be a citizens veto of Senate bill 5 in November.

UYGUR: But I want to ask you about that. First, I just kind of say, well, it really drives me crazy. And I think I`m hearing it from both of you guys, that they seem to be blaming you guys for the budget problems. You didn`t cause the budget problems. And then they could turn around and say, oh, no, no, it`s not the taxes, it`s not anything else, it`s not our give-aways, you guys and we`ve got to cut your pay. But Tim, I want to focus on what you guys are you`re going to do about it in Ohio. What is the plan of action and how it will work?

BURGA: Well, the process is Ohioans from every corner and all walks of life, will be circulating petitions to get the necessary signatures, to get the citizens veto on the ballot in November. So, the end of April, all of May and all of June, we`ll be gathering signatures and that will be campaigning the issue in November. And I can tell you that there`s been an outpouring of opposition against Senate bill 5 because it`s being seen as a stream, politically motivated overreach and an attack on workers` rights. And Ohioans are up in arms and they want to do something about it. And fortunate for us here in Ohio, we have the ability to go to the ballot for a citizens veto and I believe we`ll be successful.

UYGUR: You know, Chuck, you know, in Wisconsin, at some point, Governor Walker gave an order to clear out the protesters from the state house and the cops there said, we`re not going to do it. We`re going to do the right thing. And some of the cops even shouted out, we`re going to join you guys, right? It was an amazing moment, a really interesting moment. But, you know, a lot of politicians after 9/11 has said, oh, we`re with the cops, we`re with the cops. I mean, there`s a lot of empty talk. When it came to action, what are you seeing on the ground lately? In all these states, I mean, it seems like, particularly in the Midwest, but it seems like they`re coming after you. Do you feel particularly betrayed by that?

CANTERBURY: We feel extremely betrayed because these are the people that have brought our country into this economic problem. They`re the ones that underfunded pensions. They`re the ones that negotiated contracts, they don`t want to keep, it wasn`t the police officers, the firefighters, the teachers, it was them. And now, we`ve become their scapegoat, so we`re extremely annoyed by it. And the over one million police officers in this country are going to stand up.

UYGUR: You know, last thing for the viewers at home, look, the banks, whenever they run into trouble they say oh, the bankers contract, we can`t violate those. No, no, no, those are contracts. But when it comes to Chuck`s contractors, guys have the four as well, those contracts well, they`re not quite good enough. We can cut your pay. When it comes to working guys that Tim is representing, well, we can cut that pay, we didn`t mean that contract, we meant rich people`s contracts. I think that what drives people crazy. But look, Tim Burger and Chuck Canterbury, we really appreciate you guys coming out here and talking about it tonight. Thank you both so much.

BURGA: Thank you.

CANTERBURY: Thanks for having us.

FLORIDA - RICK SCOTT

UYGUR: Tonight, Florida Governor Rick Scott goes under the spotlight and this one isn`t pretty. Florida`s agency for persons with disabilities is facing a $170 million budget gap. So, Governor Scott has used emergency powers to order the agency to cut payments to group homes and social workers by 15 percent. The agency provides services about 35,000 people in Florida with Down`s syndrome, autism, cerebral palsy, and other disabilities. Amy Van Bergen who directs the Down`s Syndrome Association of Central Florida says, quote, "potentially this cuts have life and death implications of these people." Now, of course, Scott didn`t have enough room of the budget for the disabled people, but he did have enough room to propose $1.5 billion corporate tax cut over the next two years. So, this story is already pretty bad, but it`s about to get worse. After Scott ordered those cuts yesterday, he then participated in a run for the Special Olympics and he had this to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. RICK SCOTT (R), FLORIDA: Special Olympics is extremely important. We`ve got to make sure we take care of those who have struggled, having disadvantaged. So, this is a great event.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

UGYUR: Right. So, Governor Scott carries deeply about the developmentally disabled when there`s an opportunity for a good photo op. But when it comes to actual services, the 35,000 people need, well, that`s a little inconvenient. His corporate buddies need a tax break. What`s a standup guy to do? We`ll be back.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
April 1, 2011

Friday, April 1, 2011

Tax the Rich - Even Republicans Agree

Hey Barry:

It's sure looking like most of our folks are catching up to reality. A new poll shows that even 60% of Republicans [!] are in favor of taxing rich folks to close budget problems.

Read it here; http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/03/31/MNP21INRMH.DTL&tsp=1

It's just California for now, but it'll spread soon.

God bless America.

Your pal,

PS: And, it is NOT an April fool joke.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

UPDATE 4.27.11: Tunisia Economic Analysis

Hey Barry:

MIEPA's econnomic policy analysis of Tunisia in revolution has been updated.

Please read it at:

http://www.mkeever.com/tunisia.html

*********************************************



I am taking the unusual step of posting an unfinished and unedited work on the economy of Tunisia in the middle of a revolution because of the rapidly developing events in North Africa. It is unusual for an economic analysis to be performed as a revolution is taking hold of the country.

Perhaps some analysts will find the raw study of interest, bearing in mind that it will be updated as it is revised.

Here is the link to the Economic Analysis of Tunisia as it undergoes revolution: http://www.mkeever.com/tunisia.html

Your pal,

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Honor of the United States

Hey Barry:

You are receiveing a lot of flak for the Libya action, but it is the right thing to do.

Here's why action in Libya is good for the United States:

1. Act in concert with our values and principles - we value freedom and democracy over violence and fear;

2. Restore and enhance the honor of the United States of America - we are doing the right thing even if we are limited in our abilities;

3. Humanitarian response - we should not stand by while women, children and unarmed men are brutalized by their government - and we are saving lives;

4. Get on the right side of history for a change - clearly a movement among Arab youth is rocking the world and we have been on the dictators' side in reputation and fact;

5. Our stance is already reaping positive change in other countries - whether or not anyone intervenes, repressive governments are looking over their shoulder;

6. Improve our national security - fewer terrorists will attack us when they have some freedom and hope in their own country;

7. Quick turnover of leading role to NATO helps our image in the world;

8. Involve other countries in NATO and the Arab league in our action - it is not a unilateral USA act; and,

9. We can wear our flag with pride again.

Your pal,

Friday, March 25, 2011

U. S Class War, II

Hey Barry:

This is an unusual posting because it is a very long excerpt from a transcript of The Ed Show on MSNBC.

It is important because it provides evidence of class war in the United States. The class war is in the form of some state governors stealing assets from the public and putting the proceeds in their own pockets.

We would expect this behavior from the Gadafi's of the world but not from American public officials.

Our expectations would be wrong. Read below and you will see.

Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alaska, Florida

We can hope the the good people of the afflicted states will sue the officials and will vote them out of office. Time will tell. Some recent polls show that voters are ready to vote the governors out as soon as they can.

THE ED SCHULTZ SHOW, MARCH 23, 2011

ED SCHULTZ, HOST: Good evening, Americans. And welcome to THE ED SHOW, tonight from New York.

If you‘re middle class, pay attention—our top story tonight is out of Ohio. I just can‘t believe this one. It‘s on the table.

Republicans promised to be what? The party of jobs? But their top six priorities have been anything but jobs. That‘s in “The Takedown” tonight.

OHIO

All right. This is the story that should have every American fired up. It comes from the—I can‘t believe this department. Ohio Governor John Kasich—you‘ll understand why I say this—is kind of drunk with power.

Kasich‘s budget plan is all about one word: privatization—just like the rest of the guys on the right side.

Now, the governor wants to sell five state-run prisons to private companies. He wants to open state parks to oil and gas drilling. And he wants to sell leases of state-owned liquor stores for pennies on the dollar. This is a hell of scheme let me tell you.

You see—the state of Ohio licenses businesses to run liquor stores for a commission. Now, liquor sales generate about $228 million in revenue for the state treasury every year. Governor Kasich wants to funnel that money to a private, economic development organization called—catch this

Jobs Ohio.

Remember that—Jobs Ohio.

Kasich created this private organization to replace the Ohio Department of Development, which was a state-run agency for job recruitment and retention.

Now, Jobs Ohio, you know what they‘re going to do? They‘re going to buy the liquor licenses from the state for $1.5 billion.

But, Houston, we got a small problem here. They don‘t have the money.

So, they‘re going to raise $1.5 billion by selling the 30-year lease of nearly $6.8 billion of Ohio liquor profits to where? Wall Street investors.

Well, liquor revenue, which belongs to the state of Ohio, will now be sitting in the bank accounts of Wall Street investors.

Who would make such a stupid business decision after what we‘ve been through with Wall Street? Oh, I should have done this earlier in the show.

I should have introduced you to the new chairman of Jobs Ohio—you got it: Governor John Kasich. He appointed himself the chairman.


Now, this plan, folks, you need to know this does nothing to create jobs but it takes money from the Ohio treasury to pay off Kasich‘s buddies on Wall Street. Governor Kasich says the liquor revenues are a good investment because he expects Ohioans just to keep on drinking more.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH ®, OHIO: There are people that want to buy this thing because there is a natural wedge that gets created because over here, people drink more. I mean, it‘s just a natural revenue stream so everybody wanted to buy it. Everybody was interested in it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHULTZ: Ah, tough times, everybody‘s buying booze. Now, you have to be drunk to have this make any sense. But Kasich is following the new Republican playbook for power in revenue—use deceptive advertising, push polls, rig the elections and lie about your opponent to get elected.

Pass laws creating new departments through tactical maneuvers that cut out minority input, and, of course, make sure that new department is a public/private partnership. That always works.

Make yourself chairman of that new department. And then you really got control.

Take that government revenue stream—you know what you got to do with it? You got to sell it to Wall Street.

And, of course, use a lame duck session in office to privatize the new department. And who knows? You might retire rich when it‘s all said and done.

Governor Kasich is following that model to a T and he is showing no signs of stopping.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KASICH: There are more privatizations to come. They are not in this budget, but we‘re seeking broad authority for additional privatization.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHULTZ: Additional privatization. It‘s the answer to everything.

Republicans want to treat government like a business and people like commodities. They have no sense of economic patriotism or social justice, so Governor John Kasich and other Republicans, I think, need to quit acting like used car salesmen and start acting like the public servants that they were elected to be. It is hard to believe that the country is not totally focused on what this group of Republican governors is actually doing to the infrastructure of America. We are talking about millions of American workers who are being affected by this. And we‘re also talking about the next generation that may not have a say in all of this.

MICHIGAN

I mean, you look at the state of Michigan and what they‘re doing with education. It‘s unbelievable. They‘re making cuts to the point where they‘ve got this new law in there that we talked about the other night that if you run a deficit the state can come over, come in and take over your district. Where do you think that‘s going to put public education?

I mean, it is just one domino after another with these Republican governors. And what‘s happening in Ohio, it is going to be happening in other states that are run by Republicans.

This is the way they are going to chip away at wages, break unions, kill collective bargaining, and turn to the public and say, hey, we‘re giving you a real good deal and we think you can make more money on Wall Street. Who wants to gamble like that with the public‘s money?

Get your cell phones out. I want to know what you think. Tonight‘s question: Will Governor Kasich‘s privatization plans create jobs in Ohio? Text “A” for yes, text “B” for no to 622639. Or go to our new blog at Ed.MSNBC.com. We‘ll bring you the results later on in the show.

OHIO

Now, joining me now is Ohio State Senator Nina Turner.

Nina, good to have you with us tonight.

When I first read this story, I thought of you first because you‘ve been on this show and you have been—you know, a “tell it like it is” representative senator for the state of Ohio. What was your reaction when you first heard about this plan dealing with the liquor licenses ending up as an investment on Wall Street?

STATE SEN. NINA TURNER (D), OHIO: Well, thank you, Ed, so much. I was surprised. I think everybody in the general assembly should pause.

And let me tell you, Ed, this bill at least in the Senate did receive some bipartisan support because folks are desperate for jobs. But the way it was sold to the general assembly is that they were going to utilize private money to market, for—to spur employment, and now come to find out they want to use the liquor sales to do this -- $700 million to pay back bonds and $500 million as one time funds to close the budget deficit for $1.2 billion.

And as you stated so eloquently—I mean, these bonds are going to be sold on the market. Somebody is going to make that money, and it‘s surely not going to be the teacher that‘s making $50,000 a year or the firefighter or the police officer that may be making $60,000 or $70,000 a year.

Something is awfully wrong with the plan in the state of Ohio that seeks to privatize the profits but socialize the risks.

SCHULTZ: Senator Turner, what will the loss of this kind of money mean, you know, $6 billion, in liquor revenue over the next few decades? I mean, this is a gamble. There‘s no guarantee this is going to work. Can the state play with this money?

TURNER: Really, there is no guarantee. And liquor, you know, the money that comes into the—into the general fund for that is a—it is a stable funding source. So, yes, we‘re taking a risk. Why wouldn‘t it be more prudent to put a shorter time line but to lock in future governors and future general assemblies over 20, 25 years for a plan that has not created one job? It is absolutely irresponsible.

SCHULTZ: So this plan, in your opinion, will not create jobs?

TURNER: Well, that remains to be seen. But it hasn‘t created one yet.

And again, all of the tax we have on middle class and working class men and women in this state and then to have the unadulterated gall to put the state at risk like this, to deceive the general assembly—because that‘s exactly what happened. Again, when this bill was touted it was touted as one that would use private money to spur this kind of development and now, the turn-around to use money that comes—

SCHULTZ: Yes.

TURNER: -- to the state of Ohio in this way is absolutely unconscionable.

SCHULTZ: What‘s your response to the governor appointing himself chairman of Jobs Ohio?

TURNER: Well, Ed --

SCHULTZ: I mean, this is unbelievable. I mean, this guy gets elected. He dumps the state agency, makes himself the chairman of Jobs Ohio, gets some help with his Republican buddies to take the liquor money and go play with it on Wall Street.

TURNER: We certainly need to have an objective approach to do this. It‘s almost like the fox watching the hen house, Ed. I mean, we should definitely question the way that this is being run.

SCHULTZ: Can the Democrats do anything to stop this?

TURNER: Well, Ed, again, in the Senate, it passed bipartisan and in a bipartisan way. We are certainly for economic development. But why should the taxpayers bear the brunt of the burden on an experiment that has not proven itself? I will tell you that the Democrats are going to stand strong. We‘re going to stand strong for working class men and women in the state of Ohio.

And I want to remind us we are fighting—fighting in the state of Ohio to make sure that our workers continue to have the collective bargaining rights.

You know, the American Dream is going to be no more. It‘s turning into the American nightmare. And if you are not ultra wealthy, you can forget about it. And that‘s why all of us should care about what‘s happening in Ohio, what‘s happening in Wisconsin.

You know, Dr. King once said that the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards justice.

And I want the folks in the state of Ohio to remain encouraged that we‘re going to continue to be vigilant to make sure that folks still have the opportunity to pursue the American Dream. For some, if you‘re middle class and working class, you shouldn‘t have any rights. But we‘re not going to stand idly by and let this happen in the state of Ohio.

SCHULTZ: Nina Turner, you are a fighter for the people, no doubt about it.

But I want to ask you one final question on this issue. Now, this obviously is going to line the pockets of some Wall Streeters. They‘re going to remember who the guy in Ohio—you know, who was responsible for this. If this works, it‘s a big gamble—if it works, do you think John Kasich has presidential aspirations? You can‘t get to the White House without connections on Wall Street.

TURNER: Well, Ed, that is—we should certainly deal with how much it cost to run a presidential campaign. But for now, the citizens of the state of Ohio need a governor who cares about what happens here in Ohio for the 11.5 million people he was elected to serve.

SCHULTZ: Does he care more about Wall Street—does he care more about Wall Street than he does the citizens of Ohio?

TURNER: Well, Ed, that is a question for the governor, but I will tell you that we have a lot of suffering going on here besides Senate Bill 5. This House Bill 159 that seeks to take away some voting rights. I mean, we have a lot of issues in the state of Ohio that we have to work on collectively, and I hope all of the citizens in this state, both Democrat and Republican, are watching what happens as the middle class goes, so do the rest of us.

So, I am really about working very, very hard, along my other Democratic colleagues and some other folks of good consciousness, to make sure that there is an American Dream for other folks to inherit and to make sure that all folks had the opportunity to pursue happiness.

SCHULTZ: All folks. That is the key phrase.

TURNER: Yes.

SCHULTZ: Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, thank you for joining us tonight. Thanks for your time.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHULTZ (voice-over): It‘s not only Kasich. From Alaska to New Jersey, Republican budget plans just don‘t add up. I‘ll tell you why.

Next: tax breaks for millionaires at the expense of school kids. I mean school kids, little school kids who aren‘t going to be resourced properly. It‘s all part of the broad Republican effort to crush the middle class in America. Former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell will join me on that issue.

WISCONSIN

SCHULTZ: Welcome back to THE ED SHOW tonight and thanks for watching.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker‘s attack on public workers is just one part of a larger Republican agenda. Break the middle class and call it deficit reduction.

Wisconsin‘s Republican attorney general wants to appeal a judge‘s order blocking Walker‘s anti-worker bill. So, the state Justice Department filed a petition and listed Secretary of State Doug La Follette as the petitioner, as the petitioner. But as John Nichols reports, La Follette was never consulted on the petition, probably because he opposes the Walker bill and has obeyed the judge‘s order.

Meanwhile big rallies are planned in Wisconsin for this weekend. Organizers hope it will move the recall effort for several Republican senators forward in a big way.

ALASKA

Now, you would think that it would serve as a warning sign for Republicans in other states. Well, it hasn‘t. And the ones up in Alaska don‘t seem to be paying too much attention to any of this. In fact, a GOP proposal to curb collective bargaining is being modeled after the Walker bill. He‘s the hero.

Alaska‘s first overhauled its state retirement and health care system a few years back. Democratic lawmakers say the state has had difficulty retaining qualified teachers and police officers ever since that move.

NEW JERSEY

That hasn‘t stopped Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey from steamrolling public workers in his state. In fact, his cuts to education are so deep New Jersey schools have been unable to provide a, quote, “thorough and efficient education to their students.”

Now, folks, that‘s not my opinion. That‘s a ruling from a state superior court judge. He found Christie‘s budget cuts are affecting poor kids the most. He says, “Our ‘at risk‘ children are now moving further from proficiency.”

Where are we going in this country?

Joining me now is former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, now an NBC News political analyst, Ed Rendell.

Governor, good to have you with us tonight.

I mean, it‘s not in one state. It‘s in a number of states. And they just all happen to have Republican governors and the cuts go far beyond balancing any budget.

I mean, this is so agenda driven. The millionaires get the breaks and the kids in the classroom are going to—are going to pay the price. What are they doing here, Governor?

ED RENDELL, NBC NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, no question, Ed. And as bad as the collective bargaining assault is, the assault on public education is worse because we are mortgaging our future—Pennsylvania‘s future, Florida‘s future, Ohio‘s future, Michigan‘s future.

You can‘t countenance these cuts, particularly when in those states we‘re not—not only not increasing business taxes to share the pain but we‘re cutting business taxes. We‘re giving corporations—many of whom don‘t need it—tax breaks and we‘re punishing children.

And it‘s interesting. You know, people are always fond of saying money doesn‘t make a difference in educational outcomes, Ed. Consider this -- in my years as governor, we raised education funding for our K through 12 by over $4 billion annually, over $4 billion annually.

We went from being in the bottom third in 2002 in the national test to third in the nation in 2010 on the national test. Our 8th graders finished first in reading in the country. We cut the achievement gap between minority and majority students by 28 percent.

SCHULTZ: So, this is—this is proof positive that real investment does work and real cuts will send it the other way. I want your opinion on

RENDELL: No question.


SCHULTZ: I want your opinion on this. Governor Rick Snyder in Michigan, he is going to cut per student $715, per student. Local superintendents have called the proposed cuts unfair and unacceptable, and they say it‘s nothing but an agenda to privatize all of public education. Do you agree with that?

RENDELL: Well, it is certainly tending that way. You cannot have—look, does money guarantee a great education? No. But does not having it guarantee that you‘re not going to be able to provide that education? Absolutely. We‘ve seen it time after time after time.

And, unfortunately, the burden falls most on urban school districts who have the most minority kids who come from the most difficult background to educate.

SCHULTZ: Yes.

RENDELL: And that‘s the whole ball of wax for this country. Where this country is going to be in 20 years, on the world economic stage, whether we‘re going to be the leader depends on the state of our education.

SCHULTZ: Well, can‘t we answer that tonight? We‘re not going to be the leader.

RENDELL: We‘re not.

SCHULTZ: We‘re not going to be able to compete on an international level and create the jobs we want the way we are treating public education and not everybody can afford to go to a private school.

Now, earlier tonight in the show, we talked about John Kasich‘s plan in Ohio and in Pennsylvania, Republican Governor Tom Corbett, as you know, wants to privatize state liquor stores. What do you make of all of this?

RENDELL: Well, look, privatization can be effective in certain instances, Ed. You know, we privatized a few functions, but you can‘t mortgage the future. For example, the state liquor stores produce over $100 million a year in positive income for Pennsylvania. That‘s important. That $100 million a year allowed us to do certain things. And you can‘t mortgage the future.

What you get if you sold the state stores in Pennsylvania is a one-time infusion of cash, but if you use it to try to balance the budget and Governor Corbett is now proposing that—

SCHULTZ: Yes.

RENDELL: -- it‘s gone in that year. The next year, that hole, that deficit hole comes back again in full force.

SCHULTZ: Do you think the public gets it? Do you think that there is now a strong awareness of what is unfolding in front of their eyes?

RENDELL: To some extent, yes. And it‘s interesting. I don‘t fault Tom Corbett. Tom Corbett is doing exactly what he said during the campaign.

SCHULTZ: Yes.

RENDELL: He didn‘t lie to people. He said he wasn‘t going to raise any tax. He wouldn‘t sign any increase in taxes, fees. Not even on the shale drillers in Pennsylvania who are reaping enormous profits. And he stood by it.

And I give him credit for consistency. But the public is now going to understand what they voted for, Ed.

SCHULTZ: Yes.

RENDELL: They voted for these cuts. Everybody likes the idea of cuts before raising revenue—until they specifically get confronted with cuts in education. There was a recent poll in Pennsylvania. This is amazing—

98 percent of Pennsylvanians said they didn‘t want to balance the budget by cutting public education.

RENDELL: Well, welcome to the party. That‘s exactly where he‘s going to be going, along with these other Republican governors across the country.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Propping Up the Free State

Hey Barry:

Seems from media reports that military and civil structures in the Benghazi area are a little weak. Let's be clear, whoever stays around will be involved in nation building. We have given them hope with our military actions.

We have to deliver results to avoid a return of despair and violence. Libya now is governed by fear and violence. After Gadafi goes, they will need a better system. If the West fails to see a better system installed, then we will see the rise of terrorism.

Here's a strategy to fix that problem while avoiding the 'Ugly American' perplex we see in Iraq.

One of the problems in Iraq was that we destroyed all civil structures and then would not allow anybody from the prior regime to work. Result - no talent and a big mess.

Let's riff on the early Roman model: they invited in anyone who wanted to come provided they would work. Later, they turned to slavery, but in the beginning they had a very open, egalitarian society.

It's hard to create the best system for Libya from an armchair in California, but perhaps some suggestions will be useful.

A critical first step is to establish effective military command and control, then develop rapid training of raw recruits. If that does not happen the war will either be lost or devolve into a deadly stalemate.

Regards civil society, there are some basic steps:

1. Secure oil revenues by controlling the fields and opening the port - needed to provide revenue source;

2. Divide territory into smallish areas and hold elections immediately for a constitutional convention and/or legislature - needed to defuse tensions and begin building civil society;

3. Offer amnesty to all Gadafi deserters who sign a loyalty pledge and pass a personal interview - needed to obtain talent;

4. Establish civil society organizations immediately - schools, police, fire, water, roads, etc, etc - start the construction process; and,

5. Recruit qualified language speakers from other countries to take positions that locals do not have experience for - leave Western expats out of picture.

Well Barry, it's a start.

We are all with you and we thank you for the hope.

Your pal,

Monday, March 21, 2011

UPDATE May 17, 2011:Fix the Nukes

Hey Barry:

So, here's the thing. I was driving home and heard a PBS/NPR interview on Japan with an English expert whose name I do not remember.

No nice way. Barry.

Bottom line, Barry: TEPCO lied to us for two months. AND, we all - USA, English, et al - use the same approaches to managing nuclear power.

THAT UNIVERSAL APPROACH IS WRONG. IT DOES NOT WORK.

"Managing nuclear power safely is beyond human capacity."

Our best is not enough, Barry.

We gotta get out of this ASAP.

No more nukes.

your pal,

**********************************************

Hey Barry:

This is personal: we knew someone who died in Russia because of Chernobyl.

Cuomo's right - no time for BS here.

We gotta shut them down until we fix what we learn from Japan or replace them with safer plants.

Don't even think about profits in the bizness, Barry. That's not your job. Your job is not to kill us.

Sorry for the tone, Barry, but it's life and death here.

The plants will fail. Period

They will fail and people - Americans this time - will die.

Don't want to hear about risk calculations and odds, Barry, I just don't want to die from radiation poisoning so some corporation can make a couple dollars.

Your pal,

Benghazi Free State

Hey Barry:

Been thinking about Libya. Here's my question: What's next?

Of course the best option is that Gadafi leaves the country - doesn't matter if he leaves on his feet or in a body bag - but that is not guaranteed.

We are locked into this one, Barry, we and our allies can't walk away until he is gone. It may take some time, but we have to stay the course. If we quit before he is gone, the future will be like the past - evil and miserable.

If he manages to stay around our second choice is to march in with guns blazing. Then, there we are in three wars. Itsa a bad idea, Barry, which I think you already know.

Third choice is that he holds on while we bleed money from him and fund a civil war. That's more likely, but lots of people will die.

Here's a twist on the third option - maybe it can speed up Gadafi's inevitable demise.

Let's create the Benghazi Free State. It's goal is to speed up Gadafi's demise by taking his people and his money. After that job is done, then the Free State can be absorbed back into Libya.

Here's how we can do it:

1. Establish refugee camps inside the Free State that offer shelter to anyone who comes in voluntarily from Libya. The attraction is food, shelter, Western style medical care and safety from retribution.

2. With force or bribery, take over the oil fields in the eastern part of the country. Then, sell the oil from Benghazi terminals. It won't even matter if some of the oil is 'donated' to the Free State from Libya. Even if some of the oil is bought by the Free State, the sellers have probably stolen it from the Libyan government and the money will not go to Gadafi.

After awhile most of the population will either be in the Free state or want to be there.

Your pal,

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

UPDATE 3.19.11: War for Benghazi

Hey Barry:

Today, 3.19.11 French government claims its planes are preventing Gadafi's planes from attacking Benghazi while Gadafi's mercenaries try to enter the city.


Yesterday, 3.17.11, the UN authorized a no fly zone and the government of Libya announced a cease fire.

Good news.

********************
My heart is heavy reading news from Benghazi [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/africa/16libya.html]. I have seen photos of a young man with his brains blown out of his skull by a .50 sniper rifle and of another with his thigh bone sticking our from his crossed legs where he was tortured before he was killed.

And now the Saudis are sending troops to Bahrain to 'control' the protestors. Saif Gadafi calls rebels 'rats and cats we will hunt down.'

Yes it is an old story, but sometimes it seems that evil is winning.

I know the USA cannot enter the battle with guns blazing. But, let us at least grieve for the hope that is dying today; and then let us give what support we can to the young people who want to feed their families and live in peace.

Your pal,

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Governing the Revolutions

Hey Barry:

Looks like a few countries will be installing brand new governments. I'm sure y'all will issue real congratulations and offer them any help they want.

That's all good so long as we don't be Ugly Americans about it. Here's the thing - we are not 'xactly seen as squeaky clean bearers of gifts in that area. After all, we are shooting and bombing people in at least two countries today and also we are big supporters of Israel.

So whatever we say or do is gonna be looked at real suspiciously. Hillary's all over that so we don't have to belabor it.

The rest of this is not about you, even though you may be interested.

It's a little out of my league of economic policies, but I'm gonna offer some ideas directly to the folks who will be running those countries soon. Maybe the ideas can be useful.

IT'S HARD - SO KEEP SOME FOLKS

Managing a country where your people just kicked out the people who ran the place is real hard. There's a temptation to arrest and ban anyone who was in the prior government. Only trouble is: they know what to do.

It's worth trying to keep some experts around so the country will run smoothly. It's a balancing act to keep the experts from the prior government in their job AND be sure they are loyal to the new government. And it'll be even harder when tribes are involved. Remember that most of the former regime's supporters just wanted a job and said what they had to say.

Suggestion: Make sure all the critical decisions require at least two people to sign off. Don't let any single person decide critical issues. And make sure one of the signers is loyal to the new government. For those folks from the prior government, make them sign a loyalty oath and personally interview them to decide if you can trust them. Do this with respect and sincerity. Together with requiring at least two people to approve major decisions, that should reduce problems.

Whenever you're in doubt about a person with critical skills, remember the world is full of expats who would love a good paying job. Hire a foreigner who has no connection in the country to run a technical operation.

THE OTHER GUYS ARE CROOKS

Of course they are. That's why your revolution won the war.

Now, you need to show compassion and grace. Do not torture or execute them. Do put them on trial for all their crimes and then put them in jail. Seize all their illegally gained assets. Any property they acquired while acting in an official capacity should be forfeit.

Don't waste time on vendettas. You have a lot of work that needs your attention. If you act wisely you will get respect from your people and from the international community - both of which are more important than lynching some petty crook.

MODERATING HOPE

Your followers want everything to change right now. If you encourage that feeling, you will disappoint them. It is inevitable; reality will always lag behind dreams. The difficulty for you is that when your follower's hopes run ahead of your delivering results, you may be the next government to suffer revolution.

Here's a two prong approach to that problem. First, frequently give speeches and press conferences where you list all the difficulties in running the country. The goal is to educate people about how hard it is and to simultaneously reduce their expectation about the pace of change.

Second, create real job openings and create real help for people who want to start small businesses. Your goal is to give some of your followers a real path to a good life. That will mean some new bureaucracies and maybe some help from expats. As word of the new programs spreads throughout your followers, it will reduece frustrations.

The combination of reducing expectations and simultaneously providing real opportunities makes it easier to keep the peace.

REDUCE CORRUPTION

A lot of money was leaving your country because some former government officials were stealing it and sending it to Swiss banks.

Of course, you will put those officials on trial. Then the big question is how to prevent a new generation of crooks.

One good answer is to create an open bidding process. In other words whenever there is a government contract to be awarded, award it to the highest bidder or lowest cost provider depending on the contract.

If the bidding process is public with a public review of the contracts, then corruption is less liklely.

ELECTIONS

Hold elections as quickly and as often as possible. Officials at every level should be elected - national, provincial, local.

Anyone who has authority should be elected by the people over whom he has authority. The only permissable deviation is when an election is so obviously crooked that the results will not represent the will of the people.

FREE PRESS

Please take a lesson from the USA. A free press is critical to any honest government. reporters are the eyes and ears of the public. They are what makes any government action subject to review. If there is no free press, there will be more corruption.

Everyone in the world wants you to succeed. Don't be shy about asking for help.

Your pal,

Sunday, March 6, 2011

U S Policy in Post Revolutionary Africa, Asia

Hey Barry:

The revolutions will end soon. Now's the time to think about what the world will look like in a year or two.

Pretty much there will be two possibilities. We can hope that most of the countries will implement stable, representative governments similar to Turkey and Indonesia.

Middle East expert and Professor of Political Science at East Tennessee State University Dilshod A. Achilov has suggested that both countries can be models for future secular, representative governments; read an interview here: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/117500/20110301/turkey-indonesia-arab-revolt.htm

The other possibility is that some dictators will survive and continue to torture their populations.

The best policy for our national security is for the US to establish contacts with each of the revolutionary movements immediately. The goal should be to see how we can help them create hope in their country without co-opting their energy. There is no doubt that countries where people hope for a better future are less likely to produce terrorists.

I want to repeat that: our national security is established ONLY when people in poor countries have hope for their future. People with no hope breed terrorists. Plain and simple, Barry; no doubt about it.

If we retreat to our past practice of choosing autocrats and dictators who say they will protect our commercial interests we will be attacked increasingly. And, we will deserve it.

We gotta be on the right side Barry. The world is changing fast. The world's population has grown from about 2 billion in 1950 to a projected 10 billion in 2150.

Last time I looked, there is no more water, oil or land being made Barry. That gonna mean we looking at more wars over survival coming down the road.

It's another big choice, Barry.

One you will make. Just you.

Please chose wisely.

Your pal,

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

UPDATE 3.5.11: LSE Director Resigns Over Libya Funds

Hey Barry:

The Director of the London School of Economics, my gradschool, resigned because the school took funds from Gaddafi to train Libyans. One of his sons - Saif - took a PhD there - his dissertation is being examined for plagiarism.

read it here: http://english.aljazeera.net/video/europe/2011/03/20113552018397827.html


Tweet, Friday 3.4.11, 6.00 pm PST:... afeedalmukhtar RT @LibyaInMe: IT IS NOW CONFIRMED:More than 100 left dead in streets of Zawiya and snipers are killing the injured in the hospitals #libya #feb17 #gaddafi


3.2.11: Gaddafi is bombing cities.

From AlJazeera's live blog: http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/live-blog-libya-march-2

4:14pm

Al Jazeera's Tony Birtley was just on the phone with us - 10km away from the oil-rich town of Brega. As we spoke, he was watching a Libyan airforce jet bombing the area.

It’s now an air attack. We just watched an air force jet from the Libyan air force fly over Brega and drop at least one bomb - and huge plumes of smoke are now coming out over Brega. Another bombed near our position, where anti-Gaddafi forces have gathered.

All the fighters here are massing. We understand that something like 250-300 pro-Gaddafi fighters inside Brega and they are being surrounded. 
Gaddafi is still a force to be reckoned with, he is not giving up.

The population here want an air exclusion zone to prevent this sort of attack - but they don'twant foreign troops on the ground.

All major oil and gas installations in the town are in thehands of the opposition. We believe this is the main reason for the attack.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

2.27.11 Libya - U S Policy Choices

Hey Barry:

UPDATES 2.27.11

Maybe too loudly, but Clinton says US reaching out to Libyan opposition groups in east of country. US needs to be careful - not seen as meddling. Read it here:

http://www.live5news.com/Global/story.asp?S=14149682

Gadhafi forces abandoning Tripoli:

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/02/26/139272.html

************************

OK, I know y'all aint askin, but here's my two cents about what we - the good ol US of A - oughta be doing in all the Mid-East countries, starting now.

First, let's just realize that as you read this hundreds of people are dying and bleeding from gunshots in a whole bunch of countries.

Most of the people bleeding and dying are young, well-read kids. They are just like we were a long time ago, say in about 1776 or thereabouts.

All they are asking for is a chance to create a just place where they can live in peace and have a say about their government. And, whenever they get the chance as it appears in Benghazi, they are doing just that.

The folks doing the shooting are mostly old, rich and corrupt. They are the kind of folks that we tossed out of our country.

Question is: whom do we want to side with? Cuz, Barry, we gotta choose sides, aint no way round it. If we say nothing then we is supporting the old corrupt folks against the young folks.

And, if we speak out about how good are the young people, then we are choosing revolution instead of order and stability.

What we can NOT do is send in American troops - that will just prop up the old fogeys.

Here's what we should do, Barry: Keep quiet and choose the young. We choose the young by sending in some real quiet folks who can speak the language and encourage them to develop new government structures. Part of that job is to watch for and corral the few who want to take over the energy and push it in the wrong direction. It can be done quietly, Barry.

And, maybe we can send in some folks who are good at revolutionary tactics. I'm sure hoping we have some of them Barry - we need them now. And, maybe some better weapons, Barry. I do not want to stand in a street and call out Ghadafi with a shotgun - he has .50 cal machine guns and .50 cal sniper rifles that he is using now. It's not fair.

If that is not possible because the old, corrupt folks have too much power, then we gotta lean on the old fogeys real hard. Barry, when I say 'lean on them', I do NOT mean we should 'encourage them to offer reforms.'

What I mean is that we say - in private, mind - 'Make the changes on this list and allow the young folks some of what they want, or you will be gone.' Then, we gotta mean that.

Make no mistake, the US of A cannot choose the old fogeys in all these countries. If we do that, we'll be choosing the past and the world will pass us by even faster than it is doing now.

We gotta choose the future, Barry. We just gotta chose it quietly and effectively.

Your pal,

Monday, February 21, 2011

U.S. Class War - It's On

Hey Barry:

You will probably want to skip this posting - some things are better left unread by you.

CLASS WAR TODAY

Today, there is class war in the United States.

Sadly, only one side is fighting the war. Equally sadly, that side is winning.

The two sides are the Billionaires - not millionaires, billionaires - on one side and the rest of the people on the other side.

BILLIONAIRES ARE WINNING

The Billionaire side's objective is very simply to remove any and all protections for the middle class population in the USA and to return to social policy of the 1880's.

These include but are not limited to collective bargaining, publicly funded health insurance and health care, publicly funded retirement, minimum wage laws, regulations that protect public health and safety from business errors and/or practices, any restraint on financial institutions - specifically including the right of banks to buy corporate shares with federal reserve cash - welfare and a host of laws designed to secure a better life for the average working person and family.

The Billionaire side's methods are stunningly simple: obtain political power through the electoral process and reduce systematically taxes on corporations and Billionaires and then claim a budget crisis that requires forfeiture of protections for the population. The methods also include threats of violence - so far no actual violence - from their followers.

PEOPLE NOT FIGHTING

In a normal country, the reaction of the people to this type of class war would be equally simple and direct: overthrow with violence the government which allows these actions to proceed.

However, Americans are better than that. We do not resort to violence, except in extreme circumstances. And the circumstances of today are not extreme enough to justify violence.

But, the normal method of fighting against the attack, namely the electoral process, is so corrupt that only money interests are protected.

Unless the American people find some way to redress the situation, the war will be over before the fight has begun.

FIGHTING CIVILLY: LEGALLY AND NON-VIOLENTLY

I will suggest below an alternative method of fighting class war; this method is untried on a large scale and so I cannot predict its impact with certainty. But, I am sure that it will be as effective as it is widely mounted.

Personally I have been on the receiving end of such an attack and although it was not violent, it was destructive and distracting even though I did nothing wrong or illegal.

To read an example of how a single person can cause a problem for a company, read here how one such person targeted a restaurant for no apparent reason: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/03/05/BAIK1I4C48.DTL

It is time to begin such an attack on the interests that are destroying our social safety net.

Before discussing the specific methods of such an attack, let's examine its objectives.

OBJECTIVES OF FIGHTING CIVILLY

The objectives of the attack are twofold:

1. Distract the Billionaire organizers so that they must concentrate their funds and efforts on protecting their cash generating operations; and,

2. Limit Billionaire activities to strictly legal behavior. That is not to say that all Billionaires are law breakers, but it is to say that we want to be sure the laws of the land are followed by everyone, including the rich and privileged.

METHOD OF FIGHTING: REGULATIONS

The United States has many business regulations which dictate how business must behave. Such regulations are enacted at the Federal, State, County and City level. They are cumbersome and do in fact change how a company conducts its business.

This is a good thing for this fight.

Each of these business regulations has a bureaucracy whose sole job is to enforce its rules. While some of these regulators have police powers to arrest and prosecute, most do not. But they all have the right and responsibility to bring legal action whenever their rules are broken.

Here's the very good thing from our perspective: each regulation bureaucracy reacts to citizen complaints about rule breaking. They respond when they receive information that a rule is being broken.

Our method then is simply to find an employee of the Billionaire's businesses who is aware of real or POTENTIAL rule breaking and to notify the responsible regulator. The regulator will then conduct an investigation. If the business is found compliant with the regulation, then nothing further will happen. The good thing from our perspective is that it takes a lot of time and effort to defend yourself against such a complaint, even if you are found innocent of wrongdoing.

If the business is found in violation, then the regulator will issue a fine or criminal complaint, which is even more costly than exoneration.

METHOD OF FIGHTING CIVILLY: TARGET KOCH BROTHERS

There are hundreds of Billionaires. We can't target them all. It makes sense to target the specific folks who are driving the class war.

That will be the Koch Brothers. They are the people funding the class war.

STEP BY STEP CAMPAIGN CIVILLY TARGETING KOCH BROTHERS

Here's how to bring regulators to businesses owned by the Koch brothers.

1. Use the list below to locate your closest Koch owned company;

2. If there is no company listed in your area, do a little Googling to find one - this list is not an exhaustive list;

3. Find an employee you know socially or through your union who shares your views; if you don't know an employee, then make it a point to find one through Facebook, friends, or whatever method you can;

4. Research which regulations cover the job your new acquaintance does; the most widely known are the EPA, IRS, OSHA, local building codes and local zoning laws;

5. Research the regulation in order to understand how the Koch company is, or may be, violating it;

6. Ask your acquaintance for any specific ideas about regulations which are or may be violated;

7. Write a complaint to the regulator stating that the rules are being violated in each specific location and that you are personally harmed as a result; if you complain about more than one location, write a separate complaint about each;

8. If the regulation is covered by the Whistleblower law, be aware that you may be entitled to a money reward if the company is guilty of a violation.

KOCH BROTHERS COMPANIES

Below is a PARTIAL list of Koch owned companies and cities - note that company headquarters is Wichita Kansas and if no specific city is listed, chances are that it is located in Wichita:

Koch business solutions, LP, Wichita KS, Green Bay WI, Atlanta GA

Koch chemical tech group, LLC, Luxembourg LU

Koch companies public sector LLC, Arlington/Reston VA, Washington DC

Koch companies services LLC, Wichita KS

Koch energy services LLC Houston TX,

Koch Exploration Company, LLC Calgary, CA

Koch fertilizer Canada, ULC, BRANDON CA

Koch fertilizer LLC, Wichita KS

Koch financial corporation

Koch Glitsch GP LLC, Wichita KS

Koch heat transfer company LP, Houston TX

Koch industries Inc, Wichita KS

Koch knight LLC, Canton OH

Koch membrane systems Inc, Boston MA, Parramatta, NSW AU, Aachen Germany

Koch minerals LLC, Wichita KS

Koch nitrogen company LLC, Wichita KS, Aurora NE, Beatrice NE

Koch pipeline company LP, Wichita KS, Corpus Christi TX, Minneapolis MN, Eagleville MO,

Koch pulp & paper trading

Koch specialty plant services, Houston TX

Koch supply & trading LP, Houston TX

Koch supply company

MBM north america

Unifin chesapeake

Invista

Georgia pacific

Koch exploration company, LLC calgary CA

Optimized Process designs, Inc., Houston TX

Koch owns a coal company subsidiary with facilities in Green Bay, Manitowoc, Ashland and Sheboygan; six timber plants throughout Wisconsin; and a large network of pipelines in Wisconsin.

Coen Sacramento CA, Tulsa OK,

Flint Hills Resources, Wichita KS, North Pole AK, Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, Beaumont TX Minneapolis MN, Forth Worth TX, Ames IA, Shell Rock IA, Joliet IL, Menlo IA, Calgary CA

John zink company, Tulsa OK

C. G. Koch Foundation, Washingto DC http://www.cgkfoundation.org

Your pal,

Saturday, February 19, 2011

UPDATE 2.26: The Revolution Is Televised

Hey Barry:

Watch it here:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011223125256699145.html

2.23.11 ShababLibya BREAKING: a caller confirms 1500 were found in an underground prison systemhttp://bit.ly/hJTQLl (Arabic) #Libya #Feb17 what is this man??!

Seems that Libya is heading to a real revolution.

See it here: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011219811665897.html

Twitter feeds from Al Jazeera say that some army units are joining the protestors and that the army has killed hundreds.

'May God grant that you live in interesting times', ancient curse.

Your pal,

2.19.11 Bahrain Update

Hey Barry:

The WSJ reports that the Bahraini army has left Pearl Roundabout and is turning crowd control to the police.

Read it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703407304576153730131759762.html


This was one of the protestors' demands and may be interpreted as good news by the protestors.

If so, that would encourage more protest actions; it could mean even more violence unless the government acts wisely.

Gene Sharp - Arabian Revolutionary Hero

On a related matter, seems that 83 year old US citizen Gene Sharp is the godfather of non-violent revolution. His free book 'From Dictatorship to Democracy ' can be downloaded in many languages here: http://www.aeinstein.org/

Your pal,

Thursday, February 17, 2011

UPDATE 2.18 More Bahrain Violence

Hey Barry:

Government forces fire on demonstrators and mourners


Read it here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/19/world/middleeast/19bahrain.html

Only questions are these: will the government continue violence and will the Shiite majority react to government violence with more violence?

Your pal,

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

PROTESTS CLOSE SCHOOLS!

Hey Barry:

Teachers strike and schools are closed. Students grab bullhorns and march on government buildings. 30,000 educated, average people PROTEST economic policies.

And, Barry, this is MADISON, WISCONSIN!

TODAY! Wednesday and Thursday.

Here's what's happening: the new Republican governor slices taxes on corporations. Just exactly like Rep govs in other states.

Y'all can read it here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704171004576149003027310600.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

He creates a budget shortfall. He blames public workers and their unions for the financial crisis. He proposes a bill to prohibit public employees from bargaining collectively.

Just another attack on the middle class.

EXCEPT - the middle class - teachers, police, EMT's, snowplow drivers, fire fighters, students - know EXACTLY what is happening.

They don't like it. They march to the capitol and demand the bill be stopped. They close schools.

They are not happy, Barry.

Not happy.

Y'all need to get in front of this, Barry.

We need you there

Your pal,

Saturday, February 12, 2011

UPDATE 2.16.11: Government Launches Security Review of Business Acquisitions

Hey Barry:

Well, seems we have a committee to do just that. But, it appears to focus on military acquisitions, or more precisely, acquisitions of companies and technologies that might compromise our ability to fight a war.

And, they only make recommedations to you, Barry Obama. You make the final decision as to whether to sell a company or technology to a company in another country.

The current case is Huwei, which bought some technology that our CFIUS folks think is a bad idea to sell. I hope you'll deny the technology transfer.

HUAWEI UPDATE - 2.19.11

Seems Huawei has dropped the deal and is withdrawing the challenge. Read it here: http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/220183/chinas_huawei_to_reverse_controversial_deal_for_3leaf.html



On a broader note, Barry, you need to expand the committee so that it examines technologies and companies which will create lots of jobs in the future regardless of military applications.

That's the best way to secure our national economic future.

Once again, it's up to you Barry.

Keep your eye on the ball and trust your hands [instincts].

Our committee to "check that merger and acquisition deals struck by foreign firms ...do not endanger "national security" can be read about here: the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US
[http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RS22863.pdf]. It has the same goal as the Chinese. And, it's been around for years.

Good on us.

Your pal,

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Fat Cats on Board with Saving Oil

Hey Barry:

Looks like you have the Generals and CEO's on board with saving energy.

Go 'head and push on it. Maybe fat cat muscle can give it a final boost. Finally, we can put the oil RICH guys in second place to what's good for all of us.

Read it here: http://dc.streetsblog.org/2011/02/10/retired-military-leaders-corporate-ceos-driving-alone-aids-terrorists/

Your pal,

Saturday, February 5, 2011

BAHRAIN 2.13.11: Predicting Revolution

Hey Barry:

Totally got that you're upset at intelligence for not predicting the revolutions.

But Barry, it aint simple, not by a long shot.

Predicting economic problems is a cakewalk in comparison, see my proposal to do that here: www.mkeever.com/eda.doc

Wow, predicting revolution - not so easy.

Memory serves up an axiom of revolution: people take revolutionary action when, and only when, they perceive that things are getting BETTER. Then they have hope, but are frustrated that change happens too slowly.

Here's how I would forecast revolution timing:

Develop a list of countries 'at risk' for revolution because of extreme income inequality, repressive regime, history of torture, high percentage of youth in population, high unemployment among youth and highly educated youth.

Rank countries on list by closeness to revolution.

Then, monitor social media and opposition press for indications of frustration at the pace of change: "Things are getting better, but we want more, now."

Pretty sure the combination of 'at risk' countries, as above, with perceived frustration at the pace of change will predict imminent revolution.

Change criteria over time as facts develop.

Include in daily briefing 'five countries most likely to experience social unrest in next 90 days.'

That's about all the intelligence can do Barry; it's way harder than rocket science.

It'd sure be fun, though. Sign me up.

UPDATE: BAHRAIN

U S Navy has an important base in Bahrain. That country appears vulnerable to uprisings at this point. Leaders are offering concessions to demonstrators, a possible sign that protestors will think thngs are getting better. Read it here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/02/13/international/i034830S98.DTL

UPDATE: NIGERIA

We get a lot of oil from Nigeria, and it is currently devolving into a Somalia like morass. Probably not looking at imminent revolution there - seems people have little hope of improvement.

Read this: http://www.osundefender.org/?p=11842

And this: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/africa/09nigeria.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Your pal,

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Bankers Have Egyptian Blood on Their Keyboards

Hey Barry:

Well, it's really a mess in Egypt and a few other countries in the Middle East.

Sad to say, our good ol Merican bankers like the Golden Sox boys have contributed to the mess in a big way. It's not a big stretch to say they have blood on their computers.

Here's the thing: our bankers have been speculating big time in commodities like oil and wheat. That drives up the price. Then the poor folks in Egypt can't afford to eat. It is no surprise when they riot in the streets. What would you do if you have no money to feed your kids?

The background is this: Both FDR in the 1930's and the Dodd-Frank bill last year recognized that speculators could disrupt world commodity markets unless they were controlled. So FDR installed controls that stabilized the markets - until the Golden Sox boys and others lobbied Congress to remove the limits in the 1990's.

Dodd-Frank re-introduced controls on commodities and commodity derivatives, BUT, their implementation has been delayed because of lobbying in your White House.

Itsa cryin and a killin shame Barry. You gotta get on this soon.

Here's a transcript of MSNBC's Ed Shultz show of February 1, 2011 on the topic:

ED "So what else do these countries - Yemen, Jordan, Egypt - have in common?

One thing is high food prices, a factor in how all the riots really started and how all of it started. And it's not a coincidence that all of them have high food prices right now. Food prices have skyrocketed around the world and a big reason for that is wall street.

It started in 1991 with surprise, surprise Goldman Saachs. Before then, wall street speculateors played only a minor role in food prices. The way it worked food companies and their suppliers, America's farmers, wanted to keep their business stable. Even if prices spiked for wheat, corn, or other agricultural commodities. So they'd hedge their bets, signing contracts, futures, to lock in prices for some point in the future. Speculators helped, putting enough money in the system to keep things liquid.

After the depression, FDR saw that speculators could drive up the price of wheat, corn, whatever, by betting on commodity futures the way wall street later bet on dot coms. Distorting food prices like that could destroy the very stability future contracts were created to provide so FDR signed into law what are called position limits -- limits on how much of the total betting could be done by wall street. And what do you know it worked.

For decades the price of wheat was driven by fundamentals like the weather and wall street couldn't stand it.

In 1991, Goldman Sachs asked the commodity futures trading commission, the CFTC, to give them a waiver on those position limits, so they could bet as much as they wanted.

A CFTC appointee for the first President Bush said sure. More than a dozen other firms followed suit. Goldman Sachs even created commodities indexes. To simplify the betting and goose casual investors into the casino.

Again, wall street followed suit. Remember the real estate bubble? Wall street wanted to hedge all of those bets it made on mortgages. So they ramped up their bets on commodities.

And when wall street started losing money on sub primes, they bet it on commodities instead. By 2008, wall street had five times more futures contracts in commodities than it did in 2002. Commodity indexes held about $13 billion in 2003. By 2008 it was over a quarter trillion. That's how we got the oil bubble.

And record high gas prices added to the cost of shipping food plus speculators looking for another bubble, and you get a food bubble. Estimates are speculators held 65% of corn futures' contracts. 68% Of soybean, 80% of wheat. By mid 2008, the IMF food price index jumped more than 80% in just a year and a half before. It was the first time in history the proportion of people going hungry worldwide went up.

The number of chronically malnourished people rose by 75 million in 2007. 40 Million in 2008. That's why Egypt had riots back in 2008. Along with 30 other countries, Italian moms marched against the price of pasta. Wall street speculators admitted they were doing it.

In 2006 Merrill Lynch said speculation accounted for 50% of the price of commodities. Half the price.

In 2008 a Goldman Sachs research paper said, quote, without question, increased fund flow into commodities has boosted prices. 2009, Even republican senator Tom Coburn admits the speculation, quote, helped to inflate futures prices and there by disconnect futures from cash prices impairing farmers' and grain elevators' ability to hedge price risk.

Even Coburn said there was so much wall street money distorting prices that farmers and other guys who actually need commodity futures couldn't use them to keep their companies stable anymore. We don't notice price hikes so much because most of our food prices come from marketing and packaging.

But in the developing world, the price of food is everything. And what country imports more wheat than any other? Egypt. Where the price of wheat rose 70% last year. Last summer Goldman called a report on the role of speculation in food prices, quote, misleading and blamed other factors.

A lot of reports mentioned that Russia cut off its wheat supply last year. What they don't tell you is why. Because futures traders asked them to.

Let's bring in my colleague Dylan Rhadigan. He has his own show here on msnbc week days at 4:00. Formerly of cnbc and bloomberg news.

Thanks for coming in tonight, Dylan.

DYLAN: I appreciate it it's a pleasure.

ED I know you have talked a lot about speculators and what has happened on wall street but this has really been a tsunami in the food world, which has caused a lot of havoc around the world. Tell us, these price hikes, strictly due to speculation?

DYLAN No. First I want to compliment you on your reporting, Ed. I think you did an exquisitely good job of describing the contributing factor that financial speculation has been in the spike not just in food prices but also in energy prices. Unfortunately there are other factors also in the financial community that are even more sinister. There's a mathematical certainty, Ed, that is this.

All the paper currency in the world, all the money, all the paper must by definition equal the value of all the commodities because a commodity is equal to what the value of the currencies are in the world.

In order to cover up the massive bank theft that's been perpetrated in this country in 2008, the Federal Reserve under the guidance of first President Bush and now President Obama as you know, ed, has been printing trillions of new dollars and people, smart financial planners, have been concerned about the debasing effect that has on our currency.

Well, as a direct result of the Federal Reserve's money printing, to cover up our bank theft, that has been an additional factor in causing commodity prices to explode higher.

So in addition to the speculative aspects that you describe so well, a by product of the federal reserve and the white house and the treasuries decision to go with money printing as a way to prop up our economy, is driving food prices higher.

ED You know, it's just an amazing domino effect.

DYLAN There is no doubt.

ED But what exactly are these commodity markets supposed to be accomplishing?

DYLAN Well, very simply, they're supposed to create price stability as you described in your piece. There is a very, very valid role for a futures market in commodities both for food consumers who would like to be able to have a stable price for bread, a stable price for milk, a stable price for cheese and meat, not just here but around the world. Rice, tortillas, pasta, I don't care where you live.

And if you are a farmer, you want to know that you can lock in a price on your farm in this country or any other for that price.

The position limits, which you referenced, are critical in that they represent a limit as to how much grain could potentially actually exist. The elimination of the position limit makes it such that you can suddenly buy more grain than exists on the entire planet because now you're just speculating on the price or potential price and creating all the price inflation you described so well.

ED High prices, rural america does well. That ag dollar turns seven times on main street. So America is loving this stuff as far as the ag economy is concerned. Then you take a look at the construction of -- and the manufacturing of all the big equipment that goes with it.

But somebody pays a price down the line. In this case, it is people of these countries that are run by dictators that can't provide for their people. There is the snowball effect.

DYLAN I would say it's the poorest billion, whether it's the poor in the Middle East, the poor in Asia or the poor in Louisiana and Arkansas, those are the only people who suffer from the financial shenanigans.

ED What has struck me about this event in Egypt is for all of our carrying on about the spread of democracy through military assault and the death of our own soldiers and Iraqi civilians all you had to do was double the price of grain in the middle east from your trading floor in Goldman Sachs to receive the democratic revolution we claim to be in favor of with our military the past ten years."

Caint let this stand Barry. Ya gotta do something.

Your pal,