Why I May Leave the United States in 2021

One of the primary characteristics of dictatorships is intolerance for dissent.

While it has been said that all forecasts are wrong but some are useful, here is an outline of some of what can happen in the United States after trump takes office for a second term.

Step 1: Create en external enemy list. Since most of potential enemies within the Federal government are gone already, the next step will be neutralizing external enemies. External enemies include but are not limited to: specified journalists, critical elected officials, black agitators and their supporters and social media agitators.

Step 2: How to neutralize all external enemies. This is not an exhaustive list and the reader may be able to think of additional methods of silencing external enemies.

Media which reports facts - call them 'fake news' then buy out the company or nationalize it and fire all the staff and change editorial policy to support government.

Elected officials - kill them, make them an offer they can't refuse or change the electing process to eliminate them.

There are no appointed official enemies left, but if there are any, then follow the steps above for elected officials.

Protesters - Kill them. Already in place for black protesters, but needed for non-black folks.

Agitator citizens- See above. Those who follow or create anti-government media like this blog.

You live in a fantasy world if you think any of this is extreme and/or impossible - these are real.

These Are Dark Times

The Covid 19 pandemic kills thousands of Americans every day. It is likely that the deaths will continue until a vaccine is proven to work. Perhaps a vaccine can be ready early next year. Death from the virus is painful and alone; it is preceded by agony.

We are in a recession; millions of workers have lost their jobs and many if not most of these jobs are gone forever. We will see falling prices, evictions and foreclosures in the housing market. Families are suffering now and will suffer more. Food is becoming scarce. People who need medical care are afraid of going to the hospital or doctor because of the pandemic. Many more are without insurance and must continue to work in low paid 'essential' jobs. 

President trump is an asset of Vladimir Putin and works tirelessly to sow confusion, falsity and death in the United States. Confusion about the pandemic kills people. trump touts cures that harm and do not cure; then he claims the virus is a 'hoax'; but, it is very real. Additionally, he pits state against state in bidding wars for PPE supplies and fails to direct PPE distribution: 'We're not shipping clerks....It is not my responsibility.'

Street protests against unjustified police violence continue for weeks. Protesters are met with additional violence, partly because foreign paid provocateurs incite violence in order to justify police violence. Police feel free of prosecution for unjustified murders due to political pressure. Police must reduce unjustified violence, or the pressure to take away their immunity from prosecution will become overwhelming.

Our National, State and Local governments are trying to fend off some of the dire consequences but they are hampered by lack of direction and conflicting theories about everything. 

Our hope is that we Americans work together whenever we can. We recognize that we are all under severe stress. And we cut each other some slack. 

As Ben Franklin said: '... at the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence: "We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately." '

Let us all hang together.

Here is Greatness

Text of Radio Address - Prayer on D-Day, June 6, 1944: Franklin Roosevelt

"My fellow Americans: Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our Nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.

They will need Thy blessings. Their road will be long and hard. For the enemy is strong. He may hurl back our forces. Success may not come with rushing speed, but we shall return again and again; and we know that by Thy grace, and by the righteousness of our cause, our sons will triumph.

They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest-until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men's souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and good will among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

And for us at home -- fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas -- whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them--help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

Many people have urged that I call the Nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

Give us strength, too -- strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

And, O Lord, give us Faith. Give us Faith in Thee; Faith in our sons; Faith in each other; Faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister Nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

Thy will be done, Almighty God.

Amen."

James Hastings, Shared with Members of Democrats FB

Order All Armed Troops Out of DC

trump is collecting troops in DC.

It looks like a militarization of government.

See photo of camo troops in Espers office:

We must push back and assert civilian control of all troops.  

We cannot let this stand. 

He will continue until he meets resistance. 

Mayor must order all uniformed troops off the streets of DC.

DC police are the only force allowed. 

Perhaps the Mayor can request a few National Guard; but, troops are there ONLY IF REQUESTED BY DC MAYOR. 

November may be too late. The time is now. 

Stand Down

Attention: National Guard and Active Duty Officers and enlisted men and women:  You serve the Constitution and the American people. Your duty is to disobey an order that violates the Constitution. 

Any order for you to engage with citizens in American cities and towns with no invitation from the Governor or Mayor is illegal. 

You are obligated by the Constitution to disobey such an order. 

Here is the GI Rights telephone hotline. They can answer any questions for you:

 877-447-4487

They offer interpretations and suggestions about relevant law.

Coup and Martial Law Before November

trumputin plan is clear: Russia supports white supremacists to pose as Antifa and then create and exacerbate demonstrations into riots and looting. This is happening now.

trumputin will declare martial law due to the unrest. Then the election in November will be canceled due to unrest. trump will assume power for the 'duration'.

trumputin fear the election since trumputin will probably lose it; alternative plan is to cancel the election and assume total power.

Since most of the people with integrity have been purged from the government already, there is no obvious force to block this coup.  

While it may be against the law to declare Martial law, trumputin will simply ignore the law. It may stop only if the military refuses the order. 

'Martial law is the imposition of direct military control of normal civil functions or suspension of civil law by a government, especially in response to a temporary emergency where civil forces are overwhelmed, or in an occupied territory.[1][2]

Martial law can be used by governments to enforce their rule over the public, as seen in multiple countries listed below. Such incidents may occur after a coup d'état (Thailand in 2006 and 2014, and Egypt in 2013); when threatened by popular protest (China, Tiananmen Square protests of 1989); to suppress political opposition (martial law in Poland in 1981); or to stabilize insurrections or perceived insurrections (Canada, the October Crisis of 1970). Martial law may be declared in cases of major natural disasters; however, most countries use a different legal construct, such as a state of emergency.

Martial law has also been imposed during conflicts, and in cases of occupations, where the absence of any other civil government provides for an unstable population. Examples of this form of military rule include post World War II reconstruction in Germany and Japan, the recovery and reconstruction of the former Confederate States of America during Reconstruction Era in the United States of America following the American Civil War, and German occupation of northern France between 1871 and 1873 after the Treaty of Frankfurt ended the Franco-Prussian War.

Typically, the imposition of martial law accompanies curfews; the suspension of civil law, civil rights, and habeas corpus; and the application or extension of military law or military justice to civilians. Civilians defying martial law may be subjected to military tribunal (court-martial)' . [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law]

How Biden WINS the 2020 Election

Eligible voters who did not vote in 2016 will decide the election.

Democratic leaning swing states went for trump in 2016 because  non-voters trend toward non-white and younger demographics leaving the election to be won by GOP voters.

Six states where 45 won the electoral numbers that had gone Democratic in 2012 decided: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Probably they felt left out and helpless. Now, tell them we need and value them with Get Out the Vote events targeting younger and minority populations. Online 'telethons'  targeting Black and Hispanic younger voters  on hip-hop and Hispanic media in each of the six swing states - Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

- YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU NOW - I NEED YOUR HELP TO BEAT TRUMP

• Events are FREE ONLINE, 

• Presidents speak, answer questions from audience like press conference Cuomo and Newsom style – Obama, Clinton, Bush, Carter, even 45 himself can be invited
• 
  
• Candidates speak,answer questions from audience like press conference Cuomo and Newson style – Romney, Clinton, Harris, etc., etc.
• 
  
• Sports celebrities speak, answer questions from audience like press conference Cuomo and Newson style
• 
  
•  Hip Hop, Hispanic and other musicians perform
• 
  
• Local elected officials speak, answer questions from audience like press conference Cuomo and Newson style 
• 
  
• Voting Registrars speak, offer registration help

UPDATE May 28, Biden 100 Day Plan: - Part 3

Specific Policies for 2021

This post may be updated from time to time with new thoughts at top of page.

UPDATE - Biden campaign needs to establish an election security team in each swing county whereby voting security can be ensured. the GOP WILL tamper with the system. 

The pandemic highlights our flaws; here's suggestions on redesigning the USA system.

• Rebuild the Infrastructure and stimulate the economy: create a panel to approve state and local projects and then fund those projects.

• Secure the front line: Fund state and local governments for police, first responders, teachers and essential workers.

• Restore respect for law in the government: Fire every trump appointee, Every. Single. One. Offer interested Obama appointees reinstatement. AND, Reverse all executive actions. Every. Single. One.

• No pardon for trump. Evict him in handcuffs if needs be. Let the Legal process proceed.
• 
  
• Take charge of Pandemic:  Nationalize the PPE, ventilator and vaccine efforts. Adapt CDC guidelines on re-opening as national directive. Make sure that the public sees all decisions. Ask county health officers to designate needed hospitals and care homes, then nationalize the ones which are in financial danger.

• Make health care available to ALL residents; we are as healthy as the poorest among us. No recommendation on how, except this: profit must be removed from medicine. Profit means lower costs and higher prices - that may be acceptable in business but not when the costs are people's lives.

• Justice for all - real campaign finance reform: When laws cater to the rich, we are unjust. We can have some really rich people OR we can have a democracy with ZERO really rich people: we CANNOT have both.
• 
  
• Real bank and corporation regulation: these actors have bought our legislation system. Prosecute law breakers. Jail the felons. Obey the law.

• Jail felon Bankers: They deserve special attention since some have committed felonies with no personal consequence. Even bankers say that some must serve time in jail. 

• Rent and loan freeze: Suspend all rent and residential loan payments until a vaccine is approved by the FDA. When the economy recovers banks can add the missed payments onto the end of the loan. Borrowers receive an option to renegotiate or sell their property. Homeowners whose houses have declined in market value can start with a new loan at the lowered market value. Their original down payment applies to the new loan and the new loan will be for the new value. Banks will lose some income but their principal remains since they retain a lien against the property. When prices decline they will retain their relative purchasing power with no real loss.

• Reduce Inequality: our economy is 'hollow' because real wages have declined steadily for 40 or 50 years. The middle class does not have extra money to buy new products. The other day I saw an ad for LAYAWAY ON A PAIR OF LEVI's jeans. So: Raise Fed Min wage; tax rich at pre-Reagan levels; bail out states and cities for first responders; prosecute monopoly laws; make labor unions stronger; beef up NLRB; and, prosecute employees who fire union organizers.

A New Deal – Part 2

History is clear: we need to give a shot of adrenaline to wages and the economy with spending everybody knows we need - infrastructure. That's where FDR went.

Then, we can fix the economy, as seen in Part 3.

Income taxes helped pay for it. 30’s New Deal had higher taxes on higher incomes but MUCH lower taxes on low incomes than we do now:




Federal spending went up during the New Deal, but down as percentage share of GDP after Reagan lowered tax rates in 1984. Overall spending stayed about the same share.

We need a New Deal to keep incomes to households up so they don’t starve and can actually buy some things. Some European countries keep incomes at 80% of pre pandemic. We do not.

What happened: Effects were to create a class of super rich oligarchs.

• History

“…During the late 1920s, federal spending on public works construction averaged $200 million annually. This amounted to about 2 percent of the total public and private spending on new construction. By 1932, the last year of the Hoover administration, the federal amount had increased to nearly $400 million. Until 1930, state and local governments had been spending $2.4 billion annually on public works. By 1933, they were reduced to spending only $700 million…

The Depression brought the private construction of new factories and homes to a virtual standstill. Public works construction on the part of state and local governments also collapsed. To meet this challenge, the New Dealers vastly increased the federal funding of public works construction. This funding, however, was increased only enough to cover the amount state and local governments had been spending…

The central feature of the New Deal public works program was to provide federal support for state and local public works projects, rather than to substitute federal projects in their place.

According to Donald C. Stone, founder of the American Public Works Association and a key figure in developing the administration of New Deal programs:

'projects at the local level where people were unemployed had to be the kinds of projects that would put the kinds of persons who were unemployed to work. We couldn't just have some scattering of federal projects around and meet the unemployment problem in the country . . . You had to take the work to where the people are. (Rosen and Pudloski 1992, 45)

New Deal public works programs combined the short-term goal of unemployment relief with the long-term goal of regional economic development: As FDR himself put it, there was an obvious two-fold objective of public works policy: "to relieve unemployment (and) to develop great regions of our country in the future for the benefit of future Americans." (Daniels 1975, 4)”

[Howard Rosen is Managing Director of Program Development and Director of the Public Works Historical Society for the American Public Works Association in Kansas City, Mo.]

• Infrastructure Today, 2021

Americans know that our country is literally falling apart. Voters accept paying for needed changes.
‘…America’s infrastructure is more than just a network of roads, bridges, tunnels, ports, railroads and airports connecting our towns, cities and states. It serves as a backbone of economic growth and preserves our safety, quality of life and prosperity. The United States has long been a global leader in innovation, transportation and smart fiscal policies, yet the infrastructure that keeps our country open for business is now far out of date.

According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, the current condition of our infrastructure earns a grade point average of D+, and there is an estimated $2 trillion funding gap to bring it to a state of good repair by 2025. While we have benefited from past centuries of building, neglect has befallen our once greatest achievements – in the 1930s, 4.2 percent of the country’s GDP was spent on infrastructure investment, but by 2016, that number fell to 1.5 percent. In other words, our nation’s infrastructure is crumbling, and we need real, sustainable investment – and we need it now…’
[https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/435562-what-we-need-to-do-to-fix-infrastructure-in-the-us]

But Americans know we need more than just roads, dams and bridges:

• ‘Monthly Stimulus Check

According to a recent poll from OnePoll, 82% of Americans believe that a one-time stimulus check of $1,200 from the CARES Act is not enough to pay for living expenses in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of a one-time check, the majority of respondents say that stimulus checks should continue through the end of lockdowns. The poll, which was conducted in late April with 2,000 of individuals, also found several other results about public sentiment, including:
• Universal Healthcare: 76% of self-identified Republicans and 84% of self-identified Democrats believe the U.S. should consider universal healthcare.
• Mortgage and Rent Payments: 55% say that mortgage and rent payments should be frozen during COVID-19.
• Student Loans: 63% says that student loans should not have to be paid now.
• Unemployment: 79% say the federal government should do more to help those who are unemployed, but only 58% said that government should provide more financial support.’
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/05/19/stimulus-check-monthly-poll/amp/?fbclid=IwAR2kO4ax8HVzC2apKZB2z9myAw_LIKo_n3_0RDw64bp1BjdMTID6ODoEjV4]

Re-Imagining America 2021- Part 1

The American system is broken. Most Americans want changes and better outcomes.

This post has three parts

• Public opinion supporting change – Part 1

• A New Deal – Part 2

• Specific Policies for 2021 – Part 3


Public opinion supporting change – Part 1

This first section provides evidence of Americans’ longing for real changes. It’s the same longing trump used in 2016. The evidence below is specific but the underlying malaise is broad based. Americans know we are living in a bad system. We will accept changes formerly thought impossible.

• Health Services

While such a plan is supported by almost all Democrats and two-thirds of independents, most Republicans don't think it is the government's responsibility to provide access to affordable health care, and most oppose this type of plan. [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-polls-national-health-care-plan-favored-by-most-americans-cbs-news-poll-finds/]

• Environment:

Even Republicans want the EPA to stay: Some 39 percent of Americans would like to see the EPA, the nation’s top environmental regulator, “strengthened or expanded,” while another 22 percent hope for it to “remain the same,” according to the poll. Just 19 percent said they would like to see the agency “weakened or eliminated” and the rest said they “don’t know.”

Among Republicans, 47 percent wish for the EPA either to “remain the same” or be “strengthened or expanded,” while 35 percent want it “weakened or eliminated”.

The online poll of 9,935 people was conducted Dec. 16 to Jan. 12 and has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 1.1 percentage points. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-environment/unlike-trump-americans-want-strong-environmental-regulator-reuters-ipsos-idUSKBN1511DU]
Voters Favor EPA Reduction in CO2 Emissions; Rassmussen: January 2020

• Business Regulation:

“Big Corporations Have Too Much Power and Should Be Strongly Regulated” — 84% of Democrats, 72% of Independents and Nearly Half of Republicans Agree
Center for American Progress & GBAO: December 2019

‘Time and again, American voters voice their support for strong and effective regulations. Americans see the need for clear rules of the road that protect workers and families from reckless corporations that cut corners and put profits ahead of people.’
https://sensiblesafeguards.org/polling/

Over 60 Percent of Voters Think Facebook Has Too Much Power
Fox News: June 2019

• Privacy:

Americans and Privacy: Concerned, Confused and Feeling Lack of Control Over Their Personal Information
Pew Research Center: November 2019

Americans Oppose Political Campaigns Using Their Personal Data for Targeted Ads
The Knight Foundation & Gallup: March 2020

Americans Generally Believe the Biggest Tech Companies Have Too Much Power and Ought to Be Split Up
The Verge: March 2020

Voters Overwhelmingly Want More Regulation on Corporate Use of Personal Data
The Hill & HarrisX: January 2020

Global Poll Shows 71% Support Regulation of Tech Giants to Protect Data Privacy
Amnesty International: December 2019

• Social Media:

Poll Finds Majority Want Government to Play Role in Moderating Social Media
Morning Consult: October 2019

• Guns:

Most Pennsylvanians Want More Regulation of Gun Ownership
Franklin & Marshall College: October 2019

Illinois Voters Support More Statewide Gun Regulation
NPR Illinois / University of Illinois Springfield: October 2019

     ##############################

These specific polls suggest the depth of our dissatisfaction. We will support drastic public action to stabilize the country as suggested in the following post:  A New Deal – Part 2

Old Guy Talking

Listen up Joe, I'm at least as old as you, maybe older.

You're gonna have to stop defending your actions to save the past system. 

They didn't do the job because the system is flat broken.

You gotta start with a blank canvas and paint us a way out. 

Otherwise, it's like the old nuclear bomb drill: bend over and kiss your ass goodbye. 

You're the hope, Joe. Don't let us down. 

Biden and Boogaloo

Putin's playbook is to create division and conflict among Americans so that trump can keep power.

Some of the rich among us are helping that effort by supporting armed protests about corona virus safety measures. They do it by paying people to organize and attend protests against pandemic safeguards. 

See this: [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/18/coronavirus-americans-protest-stay-at-home] 

and this [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/coronavirus-protests-trump.html]

A major part of this effort is to create confusion about the pandemic. trump promotes confusion when he says it is a hoax while his medical team says it is real. 

Some people think the pandemic is a hoax because 1., trump repeats that statement continuously and 2., scientists deny the hoax but they are overwhelmed by trump. 

AND, the same people think that if the pandemic is either not real or may be a hoax, then any restrictions on 'my personal behavior' are a violation of 'my civil rights.' 

Ergo, we see protests with signs and guns funded by deVos, Cock Bros et al.

Solution:

Biden appears on FOX, CNN, ABC, etc., etc, to repeat that pandemic is real, the disease is horrible and that behavior rules are to save protesters' lives. If asked, Biden says trump is wrong.

Also, his staff conducts a concerted social media campaign to repeat this message. 

And, Biden repeats that the confusion is understandable but people who break laws will be arrested. Those who meet in public and ignore the guidelines endanger everyone else. 

This behavior is not acceptable. Biden will call out public officials who do not enforce pandemic guidelines. 

AND: Biden should call out the boogaloo movement on FB.

Boogaloo- Right wing term for violent revolution: 

See this: [Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/134272807853082]

And this: [https://www.adl.org/blog/the-boogaloo-extremists-new-slang-term-for-a-coming-civil-war]

And this: [https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/y3zmj5/the-boogaloo-bois-are-bringing-their-ar-15s-and-civil-war-ideology-to-the-lockdown-protests?fbclid=IwAR1FyLuZfKeiOUkaSmuM8RAb49A6hJZAfzgL706DFxUcVOLZHJCqu61CPGs]

Biden Administration Dream Team, Updated

A Biden Administration with the people below will help America restore the economy and peace in the world. 

Senators can be appointed only if a Democrat majority in the Senate is secured.


Stacey Abrams, VP, Scy Interior, remit, election security, voting rights.

Kamala Harris, VP, Atty Genl, remit race relations, corp crime

Elazabeth Warren, Secy Treasury, State

Adam Schiff, Secy State, CIA chief

Corey Booker, Secy State or Interior

Maxine Waters, Secy Treasury, Banking overseer.

Pete Buttigieg, Homeland security

Amy Klobuchar or Jay Inslee, Secy Interior, Homeland security

Beto O'Rourke, Homeland security

Mark Warner, Secy State, CIA

Andrew Yang, Secy [New position] Technology

Tom Steyer, Robert Reich, CEA

Janet Yellen, Chair FED

Exiting the New Recession: Monetary Policy Limitations

Perhaps it is time to reconsider the economic theory underlying monetary policy. Keynes General theory suggests lowering interest rates will incentivize businesses to invest and the additional Aggregate Demand will lower unemployment. 

A study of interest rate history questions that assumption:

‘C o n c l u s i o n s

Interest  rates  have  generally  been  high  and  rising during  periods  of rapid  economic  expansion  and have been  low  and  declining  during  periods  of  economic contraction.  Exceptions have occurred, such as the un­usually  high  rates  during  the  first  year  of the  1920-21economic  contraction,  the  sharp  upward movement of rates  during  the  depression  in  1931,  and  the  comparatively  low  rates  during  the  period  of  heavy  demand for  goods  and  services  during  and  immediately  fol­lowing World War II.

According to  a popular belief,  proper economic sta­bilization  action  calls  for  relatively  high  and  rising interest  rates  during  periods  of  rapid  expansion,  es­pecially  when  output  is  pressing the limits  of produc­tive  capacity  and  prices  are  rising.   Conversely,  it  is generally  thought  that  lower  rates  are  desirable  in periods  of insufficient and declining demand for goods and  services.   According  to  this  view,  interest  rates have  behaved  in  a  stabilizing  fashion during the  past half century,  except for a few atypical periods.

Proper  interest  rate  policy,  however,  may  be  much more  complicated  than  merely  determining  that  rates are  rising  during periods  of  strong  economic  advance and  inflation  or  declining  during  periods  of  substantial  and  rising  unemployment.   Questions  arise  as  to how much interest rates need to change under various conditions,  what  should  be  the  relation  among  rates on  loans  of various maturities,  the  influence of factors other  than  monetary  actions,  and  lags  in  the effect  of changes in interest rates on economic activity.’  

(Interest Rates, 1914-1965, Norman N. Bowsher,[ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbslreview/pages/1965-1969/62472_1965-1969.pdf])

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I think lowering interest rates and printing more money most likely will not change economic activity without an increase in consumer demand.

Total bank deposits rose to about 80% of GDP in 2008 and have stayed there. That may reflect a two-tier economy rather than any other economic fundamental. Recovery requires more spending and less savings.

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Annual

The total value of demand, time and saving deposits at domestic deposit money banks as a share of GDP. Deposit money banks comprise commercial banks and other financial institutions that accept transferable deposits, such as demand deposits.

Suggested Citation:

World Bank, Bank Deposits to GDP for United States [DDOI02USA156NWDB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDOI02USA156NWDB, May 12, 2020

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 Consumption spending as a share of GDP remained rose above 67.5% during the recent expansion. It rose from less than 60% to the 67.5% range over several years between 1965 and 2010.

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly

BEA Account Code: DPCERE

For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Shares of gross domestic product: Personal consumption expenditures [DPCERE1Q156NBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA, May 12, 2020.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We can expect a reduction in consumer spending as unemployment rises and millions of families lose incomes. Thus, increasing money supply while interest rates are at or below the historic Liquidity Preference threshold of 3% will not do much to stimulate an expansion.

It’s likely that both GDP and consumption will fall together in a new recession.

It is also likely that a GDP expansion requires an increase in consumer real incomes. The path to recovery lies in raising consumer incomes through more worker friendly labor laws, higher marginal tax rates to fund budget expenditures and other measures to raise consumers’ real incomes above their current level.

  

United States Fiscal Policy

The United States can borrow an apparently unlimited supply of trillions of dollars at low interest costs. Treasury notes, known as T Bills, sell easily to expand the USA's debt. Federal budget deficits create a need to borrow when federal expenditures exceed income tax receipts. 

T Bill buyers can be private American or foreign citizens, foreign or domestic banks and central banks in other countries. Lenders or buyers of T Bills like them for several reasons. The full faith and credit of the United States guarantees them. Many private buyers and sellers compete in a secondary market for the Bills assuring a quick conversion to cash if needed. Up until now, the USA has managed the issuance of debt consistently in line with underlying economic fundamentals. Buyers can buy very large amounts when they need to park billions or trillions of dollars. 

T Bill buyers may demand higher interest rates if the USA is less able to manage its Federal budget. Other countries experience this regularly. Those countries sometimes seek loans from the IMF to fund a deficit. 

Either paying higher interest rates or seeking an IMF loan will cause real budget problems. 

Our ability to borrow lots of money at a low cost depends on our lenders' opinion about our fiscal management. 

The current pandemic may interfere with this market. That could cause a budget crisis. That crisis might result in higher taxes and reduced Social Security pensions. 

Summary of our fiscal position:

Biden Dirty Tricks Bureau - 2

Let's deflect negative attacks with Reagan and Putin playbook.

" Oh that? Well, there he goes again. It's not accurate and I'll have a complete statement tomorrow. But don't forget

1. Obstruction of justice
2. Impeachment
3. Stormy Daniels
4. Putin
5. Russians
6. Deutsche Bank
7. Epstein
8. Tax Returns
9. Covid 19 failures
10. Bankruptcy
11. Family profiteering
12. etc., etc., etc..."

Biden Dirty Trick Bureau

The campaign will be dirty. Putin, the Cock Brothers and the rest are desperate. 

A campaign of creating unity among all Americans is a great idea, but Joe also needs a two-prong defense against the attacks, which will come.

Expect a swift boat type attack or Comey style statement - some one or several claims close to the election which inflame emotions.

First step: Immediate categorical denial, followed by the Reagan masterful line: 'There he goes [or they go] again' which Joe delivers with a little grin. That phrase and the grin serve to trivialize the attack. 

In 24 hours or sooner, a press release with a detailed, thorough and accurate statement is issued debunking the claim. Object of lengthy detail is to overwhelm the press with too much information so they will drop the story. A plain denial with no exhaustive detailed recitation of facts will keep the story alive.

And, create an archive of 45's indiscretions with [ideally] video of the injured party in each and every event combined with thorough detailed discussion of the entire story. The object of the detail is exhaustive detailed recitation of facts to overwhelm any counter claims. 

45 has injured so many people the stories need to be grouped into categories, i.e., criminal fraud, rape, pedophilia, failure to honor contracts, etc., etc.

Then Joe has a library of 'what about' style things to distribute in order to deflect the conversation.

It is what 45 does all the time: "What about immigration/', or' What about Obama?'

Biden Food Bank

Joe - We face a starvation situation soon. 

We have zero national leadership. That vacuum will kill people.

You have lots of talented folks with you.

Please task them to coordinate a national food bank in all states.

Will make no difference if your name is on it or not.

Just do it now.

For all Americans.

Saving Lives by Saving Hospitals

Many remotely located hospitals and nursing homes are failing financially. But we need them to continue treating patients in order that the United States can secure public health and contain Covid 19.

Proposed reorganization:

The county Health Officer determines which facilities are necessary in the county.

Those necessary but financially failing facilities submit an application to the county certifying their income and expenses and balance sheet with a list of facilities and patients.

The Health Officer approves the application and forwards it to the Federal Agency, appropriate agency to be designated. 

The Federal government offers to support each necessary facility for the duration of the crisis provided that the facility sells all its assets to the Federal government for $1.00 or re-organizes as a non profit 501(c)3 organization.

County Health Officer will determine whether each facility is still required after the crisis passes. Each necessary facility will continue to receive support while any facility not deemed necessary is sold. 

STRIKE: Rent and Loan Holiday

One of the problems our American economy we will face soon is the effects of the rise in unemployment on working people.

With very high unemployment will come misery and death due to banks' probable unwillingness to adjust their loans and their reliance on traditional foreclosure, eviction and other unspeakable behaviors.

Unemployed people lose incomes and have trouble paying their bills. Some will become homeless because they can't pay rent or loan payments.

Now is the time for a national Rent and Loan Holiday

Don't pay your rent or loan, even if still employed. Live secure because you did nothing wrong and Americans help each other. All Americans should take a holiday from rent and/or mortgage payments for twelve months. And, evictions, repossession and other legal steps should be prohibited for the same period.

Housing costs are a big share of most family expenses. After losing a job and with no other income many will choose between food and shelter. Many will choose to become homeless rather than starve.

Spending can increase when housing is secure for a year.

Imposing misery is not the American way. Americans don't abandon unfortunate people, instead we come together to help all of us survive.

If the economy recovers at the end of the year banks can add the missed payments onto the end of the loan.

Renters should have the same rights, no rent for a year. If the landlord has a mortgage he won't be harmed since the loan will be on holiday.

At the end of the year, borrowers receive an option to renegotiate or sell their property. Homeowners whose houses have declined in market value can start with a new loan at the lowered market value. Their original down payment applies to the new loan and the new loan will be for the new value.

Banks will lose some income but their principal remains since they retain a lien against the property. When prices decline they will retain their relative purchasing power with no real loss.

Biden Campaign Living Room Chats

This is a request and a suggestion that V. P. Biden begin a series of informal chats broadcast on national television with the purpose of reassuring the American population. The country has a vacuum of leadership at a time of national peril: we need a reassuring voice now.

These chats may or may not help in the election, but times are so critical that Americans need the chats. The overarching theme might be this: 'We are not Blue or Red, we are family. We are the American family and we are all in this together.'

Perhaps schedule 3 to 5 hour long chats per week, on television as soon as possible. 

Envision a camera on Joe and Jill seated in their real living room with grandkids and pets free to roam during the show. 

Joe speaks: 'Good evening my Fellow Americans. These are troubled times for all our American family. I am asking for your support and your efforts to help me fix many of the issues we face. We can fix them if we face them together as a family.

It is harder to fix problems when we are divided. I will tell you this: I don't usually agree with Republican ideas, but if they have a good idea that will help our whole family, I will support it. I will work with all the people in our private sectors and governments at the local, state and national level to find real solutions no matter where they come from. 

One of the best things about our family is that we care for all of us - we don't leave people behind to suffer. So I am asking you all to join me and help all our family in the coming years. 

There is nothing - nothing at all - that a united America can’t fix. 

So, Jill, what do you think is an important issue to talk about today?'

Jill speaks: ‘Well Joe, we could talk about the pandemic and how to fix the hospital system, but for today why don’t we talk for a little bit about the conditions of our essential working people and their families - the people who care for us in hospitals, deliver our groceries and drive our buses and trains. A lot of our essential workers are having a hard time now and I'm sure they’d like to hear what you want to do for them'

Joe: 'Thanks Jill, that's a good idea.

Well I have a long history of helping working people get a better life and my heart has always been with them and their families. 

In fact I have a specific plan to help working people, And the man who helped me write that plan, Austin Schimmerflots, is here to explain it to everybody. In addition, not only that, we have tonight Mary and Bob Smith and their two kids to give us all a view of how life is for them today. They're on a remote camera in their home
and I'll ask them to listen to Austin's presentation and ask him questions later.

So Mary, can you and Bob tell us a little about your lives right now?' 

Mary: ' Thanks Joe. Well, I’m an ER nurse in Queens and I work 10 to 12 hour days taking care of people with advance Covid 19. The hardest part of my job is holding the hand of a patient who is dying while he makes the transition. As you know, families cannot be with the severely ill and they die alone except for me. Sometimes I just cry.'

Bob: 'I see how all this affects Mary. It's really hard. She doesn't have enough PPE and I think she may have the virus, but the hospital doesn’t have enough tests to give so we're not sure. I lost my job a few weeks ago and there isn’t any work. Mary's check isn’t enough to cover our costs and I think we can't pay the rent next week.'

Joe; 'Wow, that's hard for you right now. I am hoping we can put some real money into your hands soon to ease the pressures. I will work really hard to make that happen. 

For the long term, we have a very specific action plan to improve the lives of all the workers in our American family. Austin, can you tell us the main points our plan is designed to do and then maybe answer Mary and Bob's questions about it?'

Austin then describes the plan in general with zero visual aids, just him talking to Mary and Bob....

end.

A Plan for Joe Biden

Congratulations on your election.

The good news is that you are guaranteed to be a better POTUS than 45. That's true even if you do nothing. Nothing at all.

You know the bad news.

Now we need a Nationally coordinated Covid 19 response, for all of us. We also need a National Food Bank. And, somehow unbreakable legislation to curtail Presidential powers to bypass Constitutional restraints and Balance of Powers. 

Below's a plan to address some of the immediate issues. The assumption is that you have both Houses of Congress for at least 2 years. You have to move quickly and do all this in 24 months since you may see a backlash.

1. No pardon for trump. Evict him in handcuffs if needs be. Let the Legal process proceed.

2. Fire every trump appointee, Every. Single. One. Offer interested Obama appointees re-instatement.

3. Reverse all executive actions. Every. Single. One.

4. Nationalize the PPE, ventilator and vaccine efforts. Make sure that the public sees all decisions.

5. Re-install a real Glass-Steagal and separate depositary banks from investment banks. Depositary institutions cannot make investments and investment banks cannot take deposits.

6. Declare a 12 month holiday from all loan payments with the payments added to the back.

7. Forgive all student loans.

8. Jail a few criminal bankers - no fines.

9. Request the FED to let the insolvent banks fail. The system is too badly off to even notice. Guarantee all deposits if FDIC isn't enough.

10. Create a health insurance program that covers ALL residents - we all are as sick as the poorest. Take for-profit-providers and insurance companies out of business. Re-organize as non-profit or nationalize them.

11. Pay for the costs with tax increases to Pre-Reagan era and T Bills.

12. Install confiscatory estate tax - oligarchic families are one of our biggest problems and that means Gates and Bezos among others.

13. Repair and re-coordinate defense plans with NATO and other alliances. Present a unified front to Russia and China.

14. Enforce sanctions on thug Russians.

15. Create office of national Planning: object to ensure future jobs and prevent hostile takeover son US businesses.

16. Create humane and law-abiding immigration after releasing all caged people.

17. Manage the coming Hunger Pandemic with world governments and the UN.

18. And, make all oil, electricity, internet providers, cell phone and other utility like businesses subject to Public Utility regulation of rates and profits.  

You would do worse than reading my United States Class War Field Manual book here:  

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07NKVSQ6B/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i4