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HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK - Russian Aggression in Ukraine moves Clock to 2145

Estimate of the time that Humanity will go extinct or civilization will collapse. The HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK moves to 2145 due to Russian aggression in Ukraine and the demise of the Peace Treaty. Apologies to Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for using the name.

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Balanced Trade [http://www.mkeever.com/essay.html]

There Are Alternatives to Free Market Capitalism [http://www.mkeever.com/taa.html]

Specific Country Economic Policy Analyses - More Than 50 Countries from Argentina to Yemen [http://www.mkeever.com]

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Saturday, February 21, 2015

INQUISITION 2: National Security


Having grown up in a world where children were directed to hide under a school desk to avoid being incinerated in a nuclear holocaust, I think about National Security, specifically the Economic National Security of the United States of America in the 21st Century.

The question today is stark: What will be the effects on Americans of the coming species extinction?

The Inquisitions here are not intended to be a definitive statement of these issues since the United States has a large bureaucracy devoted to these very problems. This space is simply summarizing some of the more obvious questions.

INTERNAL SECURITY

The foundation of National Security is always based on Economic National Security. True security requires that all the citizens of a country share the values and beliefs which guide the leaders. When that happens, then the leaders are given leeway and can move the country forward.

Such a country has a society where few feel excluded or marginalized. The United States of America enjoyed that shared perception for many years, but is currently losing that perception among many of its citizens. This is a potential security threat. Such a threat cannot be managed with police and security. It requires a feeling of inclusion.

But, when the perception of shared hopes is lost, then the nation's leaders are held to a fine standard and are afraid of the population. We have seen just that in many countries recently. Populations which are abused by the leaders want to kill the leaders in turn. Such a cycle creates increasing violence and death. Such a country is weak.

A secure country allows all its citizens to buy into the country and feel a part of it. Once the feeling of belonging is established, then people unleash their creative powers. Then do material living standards rise.

But, material standards won't rise until and unless citizens have that feeling of belonging.

President Obama was correct when he called for American Muslims to be allowed and encouraged to participate in all aspects of United States society. That is the best way to achieve internal security.

As we approach the extinction event, there will be more pressures on society from more desperate people. If the United States demonstrates the weakness of social and economic exclusion or lack of hope among its citizens, then our internal security will be fragile.

The pressures will come from terror, disease, climate change, military action and despair.

FOREIGN TERROR

There will always be people who seek to destroy a strong society for any number of reasons. If the society is multi-national, as is ours today, then some terrorists from one country will seek to harm the citizens of another.

If that sort of movement becomes organized, then it may require the US to campaign militarily inside another country in order to secure the homeland.

Applying the concept of internal security described above, it is obvious that some countries are more secure than others. And, it is equally obvious that some citizens from a less secure country may try to harm citizens of a more secure country.

As the extinction event becomes more real to more people, terrorist acts will increase.

This is the justification for much of the security apparatus today.

PANDEMICS

Anti-biotic resistant bacteria and virulent viruses will overwhelm the medical system of the United States as the event comes closer.

A country which cannot manage the health of all its citizens both armed forces and non-military citizens is a weak country.

The only advantage the United States may have is that it will be even worse in other countries.

The USA may exhaust its supplies through caring for the ill of other places in addition to our own. And, that is an effort we make to ensure our own population's health.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is occurring and will increase. The underlying dynamic of increased carbon emissions, which is the primary cause of climate change, is well documented and irreversible in the practical world.

The major effects of climate change will be sea level rises and droughts in food producing areas.

The droughts will reduce the ability of our species to produce food at a time when the population is expanding rapidly.

Wars will be fought for water and food.

MILITARY ACTIONS AND DESPAIR

We are seeing wars waged today for religious reasons.

But the underlying causes of these wars may well be the feelings of exclusion and loss of hope on the part of many marginalized people.

As the loss of hope increases we can expect more military and terror actions.


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Debaltseve Moves DOOMSDAY Clock to 2145


Barry, My Liege:

Continued Russian backed aggression in Ukraine kills peace treaty and raises threat of widening war.

Russian forces take rail hub on their way to Mariupol.

Details here: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/18/after-debaltseve-what-comes-next-in-the-fight-for-eastern-ukraine-putin-poroshenko/

With Russia's endgame mired in the fog of war, the DOOMSDAY Clock is moved forward one year to 2145 due to the increased risk of a wider war.

Your faithful servant,

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Personal 'Inquisitions'

So, I'm not sure if the impetus for these 'Personal Inquisitions' or reflections comes from facing my personal mortality or from contemplating the species mortality we all face. No matter, maybe some of the questions here will be of interest.

I'll try not to be bombastic or didactic, but I don't know what will happen.

INQUISITIONS - PREFACE

First, a little more background on using the word 'Inquisition'.

An 'Inquisition' is simply a question.

According to Google's dictionary, an inquisition is "a period of prolonged and intensive questioning or investigation, as in 'she relented in her determined inquisition and offered help'. Synonyms: interrogation, questioning, quizzing, cross-examination, investigation, inquiry, inquest, hearing. Informal grilling, examination"

Although the word is also used to describe an 'ecclesiastical tribunal established by Pope Gregory IX circa 1232', the word is used here in its more generic meaning and does not reference any religious 'Inquisition'.

INQUISITION 1: Live a Good and Moral Life

Or, more completely:

'How can I conduct my daily affairs with decency and compassion while being convinced absolutely that the human species will go extinct during the lifetime of my great-great grandchildren?'

After accepting the conclusion that the human species will go extinct soon, my first reaction was a feeling of complete helplessness. It is like watching a train wreck in slow motion when the train contains all your loved ones.

The 1993 movie 'Fugitive' with Harrison Ford has a scene where his character is watching just such a train wreck. It is a great visual image.

It happened that this revelation occurred simultaneously with my parent's passing.

Second, when considering the species event as opposed to the personal event, there are no tears of relief or comfort for angst this large. The likely reality is stark and unforgiving. And, there is nothing I can do to change the outcome. It will just happen.

The personal event is similarly stark, but it is less traumatic since it was expected and natural.

While considering either event, some can look to their God for relief, but I am not a religious person. There is no comfort for me in a 'belief' in any sort of God or supreme power.

It is apparent that the powers which control the Universe are vast and beyond our ability to understand.

It may be that the human species has constructed the idea of God and of religions to make sense of the unknowable. However, I would rather follow our collective curiosity toward greater understanding of truth than deliberately close off that inquiry by adopting some human construction of the universe. It is better to live with wonder and awe than it is to live with fear and ignorance.

To repeat the opening question, the question is this: how can I live decently in a world of unknowable powers and the certainty of impending doom?

I choose a dual path. First, I make every effort to alert people to the evidence supporting the extinction hypothesis. Perhaps there is a miracle waiting whereby we can avoid the pain and suffering that will accompany the extinction.

Perhaps that hope is merely 'pissing in the wind' and will accomplish nothing.

But, at least it is an effort in a positive direction.

One approach toward positive action is to take an idea from the Stoic philosophers, badly paraphrased as this: The past is over, the future is mostly unknowable and the only thing we possess is today.

That translates to a daily action plan of focusing on the things that I can do today while simultaneously letting go of any and all past actions

And, since any action has consequences for the future, I try to make decisions which will bring about a better future.

And here is the rub: there is no long term future when an extinction event looms ahead.

Some might argue that such a viewpoint suggests a hedonistic and acquisitive life is the best choice. There are lots of examples of that choice, regardless of any concern about species extinction.

But, pleasure and accumulation as a life style do not suit my temperament.

I acknowledge that I am singularly lucky to live as an adult today in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. There are benefits and rewards beyond measure and beyond our ability to enjoy them all.

But all the while, I recognize that my descendants will pay the price for my luxury and I am saddened by that. It is doubly sad that they are not even aware of the fate they face.

All I can do is to apologize in advance.

If my great-great grandchildren are reading this, then I say to them: The disasters you suffer were largely unavoidable. We could have changed things so you would have a better outcome, but we did not recognize the dangers in time and we were not able to overcome our behavioral flaws to act as a species instead of as selfish individuals.

Some of us regret that more than words can express.

To the question: What can I do today to make the troubled lives around me better?

More than regret and apology, what can I do?

Perhaps it is simply this: recognize explicitly that most people really do want to make the world a better place. So tell them - each and every one you see doing that. Tell them that their efforts are noticed by you and that they are doing a good job.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

DOOMSDAY Clock Stands Still Despite Remote Medical Diagnosing and Ukraine


Barry, My Liege:

Two recent events merit attention when considering the impending demise of civilization and the extinction of humanity. One recent event offsets the other so that the net effect is zero.

The extinction event stands at 2146.

The first event is positive: Researchers at the University of Cambridge have developed a mobile phone app which can provide instant diagnoses of several diseases. Currently, diagnoses of many diseases require examination of a sample by a spectrophotometers or test-specific readers; these devices are expensive and rare.

Soon, using the app in a remote location may easily provide a diagnosis of many diseases. This could reduce the severity of future epidemics by correctly diagnosing disease outbreaks at early stages, when the application is widely available. The backgound is here : http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140319103612.htm

The second series of events is negative and offsets the positive news above. The continuing war in Ukraine appears to be sliding toward an expansion. Any such an expansion has the possibility of spiraling out of control into a continent wide war.

Your faithful servant,

Friday, January 30, 2015

Rich People Are Jerks


Barry, My Liege:

The numbers are in and it ain't pretty.

Rich people are jerks, plain and simple. Scientists have proven it.

The science is discussed here: [http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Psychology-studies-suggest-rising-wealth-means-6039481.php]

But, to anyone who has followed the discussion, this is not news. This space reviewed Chrystia Freeland on Plutocrats on October 21, 2012
['Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else', by Chrystia Freeland]

The trouble is that great fortunes hurt the rest of us by their very existence.

Simply being rich is bad for everyone, even if the person does not behave badly.

The wealth accumulation creates evil in and of itself.

Bad behavior just makes it worse, but good behavior cannot ameliorate the bad effects of great wealth.

And, the wealth concentrations are getting worse while they expand around the globe.

According to the UN, the richest 1% of the population now owns 40% of all the world's wealth. [http://www.theguardian.com/money/2006/dec/06/business.internationalnews]

This divergence is not sustainable.

At some point, violent change will occur.

The conclusion is inevitable and clear - The world will be better when the great fortunes are destroyed.

The destruction may happen with legislation or it may happen with blood.

But, it will happen.

This space has made a point of discussing the phenomenon of excessive wealth in a variety of subjects.

Here is a sampling of some of the statements made in this space in the last few years:

'Tax havens: Super-rich 'hiding' at least $21 trillion', published 7.21.12

'Recovery : Great Fortunes, Great Incomes' - How wealth reduces growth, published 5.18.2012

'Recovery : Monopoly, Revised with 2002 data', How monopolies inhibit growth, published 5.7.12

'USA Existential Crises: New Prince Class, National Security' How US superrich threaten USA middle class, published 4.20.12

'USA Rebellion's Coming' Our situation today is analogous to the situation [REBELLIONS] in England in the 14th Century, published 4.6.12

'Structural Difficulties with Recovery' According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, the share of total GDP acounted for by wages and salaries - that is where consumer demand comes from - was around 51% between the late 1940's and about 1969 when it peaked at 53.5%.
Since that peak, it has declined steadily until it stands at a low 44% of GDP today. Published 2.20.12

'Will the USA Collapse?' Some other civilizations which have collapsed, published 1.9.12

'DC Crony Fascism' How the US ruling class appoints cronies and damages the country, published 1.2.12.

'The Real Problem With Banks' Bankers are human - some of them steal, published 11.4.11

There have been other statements in this space as well.

Your faithful servant,

Monday, January 19, 2015

Islamist Oath of Non-Violence

Barry, My Liege:

In today's world, we are concerned justifiably that some Muslim extremists will visit violence on our citizens in the name of religion. While the vast majority of the Muslim population does not support these actions, it is our right and duty to protect ourselves against those extremists who want to harm us.

It is appropriate to ask each person suspected of harboring such violent wishes to swear an oath renouncing the use of violence. If the person refuses to take such an oath, then we are justified in deporting that person or otherwise expelling him or her from our country.

Some people will willingly and falsely sign such an oath while retaining their beliefs in violence. But, most potentially violent extremists will object to signing a document which asks them to renounce the Quran verses which support violence.

By deporting all who refuse to sign such an oath, we will reduce the incidence of violence in our country.

Such an action will create controversy and accusations of discrimination. However, our rights and duties to protect our citizens from violence support such an action regardless of any outcry.

The Quran contains several specific verses which call for violence from believers. We must require that any person suspected of violent tendencies swear an oath renouncing those passages in the Quran which call for violence.

This space has created such an oath which can be used and adapted by any interested party.

The Islamist Oath of Non-Violence is available here : www.mkeever.com/islamistoath.doc

This oath is designed to force a suspected terrorist to make his or her views known to the police; if the person renounces each and every one of the approximately 100 explicit calls for violence contained in the oath, then the person can be deemed low-risk. On the other hand, if the suspected terrorist refuses to sign each of the renunciations, then that person should be expelled from the country.

Here is the first part of the oath:


'I desire and hereby make a formal renunciation of certain selected verses of the Holy Quran. This oath of renunciation does not change my belief in Allah as the true God and Muhammad as His servant and messenger and of the Last Day. I make this renunciation intentionally, voluntarily and of my own free will, free of any duress or undue influence. Each of the verses is listed below together with my specific renunciation of each. The English text of the verses is taken from the Noble Quran and can be read here : http://www.noblequran.com/translation/surah2.html

Quran (2:191-193) - "And kill them wherever you find them, and turn them out from where they have turned you out. And Al-Fitnah [disbelief or unrest] is worse than killing...but if they desist, then lo! Allah is forgiving and merciful. And fight them until there is no more Fitnah [disbelief and worshipping of others along with Allah] and worship is for Allah alone. But if they cease, let there be no transgression except against Az-Zalimun (the polytheists, and wrong-doers, etc.)"

I, __________________________________________________________[Initial here] reject and renounce the Quran verse immediately above.'

Your faithful servant,




Thursday, January 1, 2015

On Ukraine

Barry, My Liege :

Here's the best I can do about Ukraine. Before the current war, it was and is a failed state. It is so corrupt that the population depends on foreign aid for food and fuel. Half the population, in the more industrial east, is very Russian in language and customs. The Ukrainian language is similar to Russian. Both Ukrainian and Russian speaking easterners were pro-Ukraine and did not want to join or move to Russia including those who emigrated west from there. There was a small minority who wanted to break away and join Russia. This is the group Putin co-opted into the war.

The western, more agricultural population half was and is very pro EU and, although friendly to Russia and Russians, did not want any formal ties. There was and is a small minority of literal Nazi holdovers from World War 2 who hate Russians and want to kill them all. This group forms militias, provokes violence and has legislative representation. Most likely this group started violence in most of the recent incidents. There are no facts available to me which support this hypothesis.

The US supports this half of the population in its quest for EU membership. The recent Orange revolution was sponsored by the US. After the failure of the revolution a strongman dictator took power. He favored Russia over the EU. His stance caused riots. He then pivoted to supporting EU membership. He was clearly over his head. He fled to Russia.

After that, Putin started the violent breakaway of the eastern half of the country and annexed Crimea. Crimea has been 100% Russian and is a major naval and military base as well as a beautiful resort city. That war continues with US support for the Kiev, western government and Russian support for the breakaway eastern half.

At the moment the Kiev government is run by a billionaire who seems to have some smarts as well as the advantage of being immune to bribery because he is already rich. The US recently installed an American/Ukrainian woman as finance minister. The US position is that we want the war to continue and we want to take the oil. This is evidenced by the recent law.

The Kiev government has initiated the detailed systematic overhaul of its internal procedures required by the EU for membership; this will take a few years to complete. In the meantime, the government will need about $20 billion more or less to prevent mass starvation. Hundreds of thousands of Russian favoring easterners have emigrated to Russia. Putin's dilemma is that his government is in financial difficulty and cannot afford the costs of supporting the eastern half, but he broke it so he bought it.

The only factors which can come close to explaining any part of this fiasco are greed, stupidity and fear. You can take your pick.

We had better get a handle on this soon or will will regret it.

Your faithful servant,

PS: Please read this for addtional background: http://www.mkeever.com/ukraine.html

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Fall Country Studies Published

The Mike P. McKeever Institute of Economic Policy Analysis (MIEPA) is pleased to announce the publication of its Fall 2014 country studies.

Three countries have been analyzed by four Specialists: Burma/Myanmar, Hong Kong and the United States of America by two Specialists.

Burma/Myanmar is analyzed by Specialist Y. Thu [A nom de guerre at MIEPA suggestion]; the analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/burma.html

Hong Kong is analyzed by Specialist Lilian Chan. Her analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/hongkong.html

The United States of America has been analyzed by two Specialists, Specialist David Schilling and Specialist Sigfredo Ramos. Their analyses can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/usa.html

MIEPA can be accessed at www.mkeever.com

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

A Gift to the Unborn

Barry, My Liege:

In order to understand our future course as a species, scientists have studied fossil and other geologic records of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) of 56 million years ago.

Earth's climate endured a rapid warming during this period which was roughly similar to the expected warming from our likely future if global warming continues.

The species die-off during this PETM period was concentrated in non-mammalian species; surprisingly, mammals seem to have adapted and thrived.

However, the likelihood of mankind surviving such an event is unlikely.

The onset of the PETM has been linked to an initial 5 °C temperature rise and extreme changes in Earth’s carbon cycle.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum#Life]

Geology suggests that the Earth suffered a massive species die-off during the "Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), alternatively "Eocene thermal maximum 1" (ETM1), and formerly known as the "Initial Eocene" or "Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum". This refers to a climate event that began at the temporal boundary between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs. The absolute age and duration of the event remain uncertain, but are thought to be close to 55.8 million years ago and about 170,000 years of duration.

While massive die-offs are supported by the geologic record, interestingly some of the mammals which appeared in the era, notably horses and primates, appeared and spread around the globe." [Philip D. Gingerich, Geological Society of America, Special Paper 369, 2003, Mammalian responses to climate change at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary: Polecat Bench record in the northern Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, Philip D. Gingerich
Department of Geological Sciences and Museum of Paleontology,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109–1079, USA]

'If we do not reverse current trends by close to 2020, however, we may have failed. Global warming will pass the widely acknowledged danger level of two degrees, since there is an approximately 20 year delay between emission reductions and the halting of their warming effect. This report clearly demonstrates that climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic', Kofi A. Annan, President of the Global Humanitarian Forum, [http://www.ghf-ge.org/human-impact-report.pdf]

'One of the clearest pictures of this future is emerging for the U.S. Southwest and a similar meteorological zone that stretches across Italy, Greece and Turkey. Work by Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Seager and others predicts that these regions will get hotter and drier—and, perhaps more important, shows that the change has already begun. "The signal of a human influence on climate pops up in 1985, then marches on getting strong and stronger," Barnett says. By the MIDDLE OF THE 21st century, the models predict, the climate will be as dry as the seven-year long Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s or the damaging 1950s drought centered in California and Mexico, Seager says: "In the future the drought won't last just seven years. It will be the new norm."'. [Our Extreme Future: Predicting and Coping with the Effects of a Changing Climate, Scientific American, Final part of a three-part series June 30, 2011 |By John Carey]

The midpoint of the 21st century is 36 years from today.

In an earlier post titled 'Only Way To Prevent Disaster - Zero Emissions by 2070', published here on November 28, 2014, I asked that you create model legislation which will reverse the course of global warming if enacted.

That call is repeated here - For the sake of your grandchildren, during the '4th Quarter' of your time as President of the United States, please write that legislation and present it to the Congress of the United States.

It will not pass, but there will be a record of what we have to do.

So, DO NOT MODIFY THE LEGISLATION TO SECURE PASSAGE.

Political expedience will kill our species.

Your faithful servant,

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Ebola News Pushes Back Doomsday Clock to 2146


Barry, My Liege :

While Ebola is still a terrible disease and still spreading, there are some developments which offer hope that this particular disease may not overwhelm humanity's ability to survive.

First, a vaccine has been deveoped. While testing has been halted temporarily
[http://www.bbc.com/news/health-30432079], the real possibility of a vaccine demonstrates our specie's ability and will to address the disease.

Secondly, the rise in new cases has slowed in Liberia [http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/cumulative-cases-graphs.html].

This demonstrates that humanity has the ability to rise to this challenge. Unfortunately, Ebola treatment in Sierre Leone and Guinea has not increased its effectiveness similarly.

Nevertheless, these two developments are sufficient to push back Humanity's Expected demise by one year to 2146.

Your faithful servant,

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Senate Torture Report

Barry, My Liege :

A copy of the Senate Report on Torture is available at this link :

www.mkeever.com/Senate Torture Report.pdf

Note that the file is 67mb and the report has 525 pages.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

UPDATE, CHRIS ROCK VIDEO - All the Black Mama's Talkin


Barry, My Liege :

This is a suggestion for the African American Community.

It's the 'talk' that mothers can give their sons about what to do when stopped by Police.

I hope it will be taken in a spirit of love.

'Lookit you, boy. You is jes bout all grown. My Lord. I'm real proud of you son and don you forget it neither.

But, you know, there's sumthin we gotta talk about.

Now you know that there are some white folks out there who hate us just because we black. Now there ain't nothing we can do about that. They just gonna hate. When you meet one, just be polite and go about your business. But, don't do nothing stupid, don't do nothing stupid.

But son, I wanna talk about Police now. Boy, you is gonna be stopped and talked to by Police. A lot. That's just the way it is.

Now, it don't matter why they talk to you, it's just gonna happen.

The thing you gotta remember is that Police don't know your mind. All they know is your actions. Police don't read minds and they all packin. Police just like walking bombs ready to go off.

And remember, you don't know squat about Police mind. Maybe they are looking for someone who looks just like you and who just shot a store owner.

You gotta remember that they under pressure, so don't be stupid. Don't go givin them a reason to shoot, 'cause they will.

Now if you go and do some stupid crap that hurts somebody, like stealin and crashin a car, well Police gonna catch up with you. They gonna be pissed. When they catch you, they probably gonna hit you some. And, you know what, you probably deserve it for doing the stupid.

But, they won't kill you for that. You want to be killed for stupid stuff, go and hang around with the drug gangs. They shoot you for any old reason. Police are better than that.

There some trash talk out there that white Police kill black kids because the kid is black.

Well, that's just plain wrong.

Police kill anyone who makes them fear for their own life. If you make a Police afraid of you, he gonna kill you.

That's his job. Police job is to stop any folks who make them fear for their life.

And, it don't matter you black, white, yellow, brown or red. If Police are afraid of you they gonna shoot you.

Ain't got nothing to do with color, it's only about fear.

And, if Police afraid of you, they ain't gonna ask a buncha questions. It's gonna be 'FREEZE' or some such. And if you don't, they gonna shoot.

Police don't know your mind, only what you do.

So, don't do playing around, acting the fool while you don't mean no harm. How Police gonna know you foolin? They don't and you'll end up dead.

UPDATE: Just in case what I'm saying don't make no sense, watch this funny as hell video from Chris Rock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR465HoCWFQ

Come back to me every day, Son. I don't know what I'll do without you.


Your faithful servant

Friday, November 28, 2014

Only Way To Prevent Disaster - Zero Emissions by 2070


Barry, My Liege :

'The world must cut CO2 emissions to zero by 2070 at the latest to keep global warming below dangerous levels and prevent a global catastrophe, the UN warns.

By 2100, all greenhouse gas emissions – including methane, nitrous oxide and ozone, as well as CO2 – must fall to zero, the United Nation's Environment Programme (Unep) report says, or the world will face what Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists have described as “severe, widespread and irreversible” effects from climate change.'

[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/19/co2-emissions-zero-by-2070-prevent-climate-disaster-un]

Considering that the world's economies are carbon based, it is unlikely that such a target is achievable.

This likelihood moves the Humanity Doomsday Clock to 2145.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, November 15, 2014

New Cold War Without Honor


Barry, My Liege :

One of the defining issues of the Post World War II era was the Cold War.

In addition to occasional shooting wars, the Cold War was mostly a quiet contest for economic supremacy fought by countries with opposing economic ideologies.

The Socialist countries were led by the Soviet Union and China with their similar Socialist economic systems.

The West was led by the United States and Western Europe with its Free Market Capitalistic systems.

Partisans on each side were convinced that only their system would bring the greatest good to the largest number of people.

It was a moral struggle as well as a political battle. The spies and politicians of the Era claimed the moral high ground and its attendant honors.

Defeating the opponent in a political contest or covert operation of that Cold War became a badge of Honor.

However, the differentiating economic structures which defined the era have pretty much disappeared.

It appears as Karl Marx predicted; namely, the two systems have converged.

The new system contains the remnants of a Free Market system, but has slowly morphed into an Oligarchic model with great wealth and income concentrations.

Both the Russian and United States economies have become similar Oligarchies.

Read details of Russia's system here : http://rt.com/business/russia-world-household-wealth-944/

Read details of the United States' system here : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States

Today we can see some of the vestiges of that Era's Cold War tactics being reconstituted in today's world.

But, the two competing systems have similar ideologies.

In this case, there is no moral good or honor to be claimed in any victory.

The New Cold War is simply a turf battle between competing gangs of Oligarchs.

Your faithful servant,

Monday, November 10, 2014

Corporate Personhood - Lock 'Em Up


Barry, My Liege :

Inasmuch as corporations are recognized as persons when making campaign contributions, then it seems appropriate that they should be recognized as persons when a crime is committed.

When a natural person commits a crime, he or she faces penalties like fines and imprisonment.

While we have a system of fines in place to punish corporations guilty of law breaking, we do not have a provision to place the offending corporation in prison.

After all, it is hard to place the collection of legal documents which comprise the 'soul' of the corporation into a jail cell.

However, we do have in place already a system whereby outside, court appointed persons can assume the management of the corporation for a temporary, defined period of time. We can do that already to some banks and financial institutions under existing law; it is time to expand the process to all corporations.

It is called Receivership and you can read about it here : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receivership

It seems fair and just that an entity which has some of the rights of natural persons should have also some of the duties of natural persons, namely the duty to obey the law or forfeit freedom.

When a corporation is convicted of a serious crime, a judge should have the ability to both fine the corporation and to appoint a receiver to manage the affairs of the business for a pre-determined period of time.

The receiver would act in place of or replace the managers who participated in creating the crime. Those executives would be sent home without compensation for the duration of the receivership.

The primary objective of the receiver would be to protect the existing assets of the shareholders. He would be prohibited from taking any risks with those assets to ensure their prerservation.

The practical effect of such a program would be to seriously damage the corporation since taking risks with corporate assets is what companies are supposed to do in order to prevent any loss of ground or market position to the competition.

That effect likely would become a serious incentive to the Board of Directors to be sure crimes are not committed since the loss of momentum from a receivership would have the result of reducing the market value of the company's shares.

Remember, My Liege, what goes around, comes around.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Obama Legacy - Climate Change


Barry, My Liege :

In your Fourth Quarter as President of the United States of America [POTUS], you will be unable to implement substantial legislative changes due to a Republican controlled Congress.

And yet, humanity faces severe dangers from increased global warming. The IPCC 2014 Summary for Policymakers [available here : https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf] details many of the harms we will face.

My Liege, it is your opportunity to create and propose legislation which would, if implemented, stop climate change. Perhaps you and your associates can describe exactly what humanity must accomplish in order to prevent our mutual extinction.

We recognize the reality that such legislation will not be adopted now.

Events will become worse over the years.

Our expectation is that future conditions may force policy makers to consider actions unthinkable now.

To be successful in the future, your proposals will have to be extreme and not incremental. They will also have to be procedurally correct; that is to say, the legislation should be thoroughy developed so that when it is enacted, it will accomplish its goals.

You will be giving a helping hand to our grandchildren by providing specific and effective policies to save our species.

It is a worthy endeavor, My Liege.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Cynical Investment Strategy


Barry, My Liege:

Despite the looming shadow of doom facing humanity, some souls may be wondering about how to make good investments.

Personally I think spending some time in the sunshine and playing with grandchildren is the best possible investment; but, others may disagree.

Consider that the recent financial crisis consisted of an asset bubble in real estate followed by crashes of markets for all assets and commodities and a pretty severe recession.

Is it likely to happen again?

These events were caused by the felonious bankers at the top of our financial system who committed massive frauds in order to make thermselves richer.

And, My Liege, these are some of the very fellows who have bankrolled your political career.

For shame, My Liege; for shame.

You can read the full story from William K. Black as seen on the Bill Moyers show here http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-big-jail/

I digress.

The same criminals who perpetrated the recent crisis are not only free from prison, they are still in charge of our financial system.

It's a sure bet that we will see another asset bubble followed by a financial crisis and collapse. After all, it is what they do.

Were I to look for coming asset bubbles I would look for commodities essential to life. Although we cannot monetize air, we can surely monetize water. In fact we are doing so around the world.

I would look for rapid price increases in essential commodities like water, grains, metals, oil and so forth as a possible sign of an asset bubble.

If signs of a bubble are visible, then it may well be time to sell off physical assets and convert to cash and hold the cash while looking for distressed assets.

Your faithful servant,

Friday, October 3, 2014

Victory vs. ISIL

Barry, My Liege :

What does Victory look like in a bombing campaign against ISIL?

Good question.

The reality is that we cannot bomb ISIL out of existence. Even if we tried carpet style bombing from WW II, there will be some survivors and many innocent casualties. The survivors will be bitter.

Our aim is different. Our goal should be to take away ISIL's heavy weapons and their mobility so that they are reduced to foot and animal movement and small arms.

Once they are reduced to fugitive criminals, then they are susceptible to police and militia encirclement and capture. At that point the bombing has been successful.

Of course this strategy requires a competent military with foot soldiers on the ground to complete the degradation of ISIL. Our air campaigns can be a support but not the main force.

In the long run we recognize that there will always be Islamic militants. Their sacred text calls for physical violence against all who do not follow the 'correct' path. It seems that the path is determined as 'correct' by the group with the most guns.

While we may not be at war with them, they are at war with us and will be for the forseeable future. Our security requires that we recognize that for what it is.

Also, in the long run, our security is dependent on the citizens of the area choosing a responsive government which can respond to concerns of all people.

In the past we have chosen to support strong but corrupt rulers to keep the peace whenever we could not install an elective democracy. The past few years have shown that such a strategy is no longer viable.

While we cannot insist on Western style elective democracies as a cookie cutter model for all countries, we can monitor and support good and stable governance under a variety of models.

New models are called for. Any successful model will be specific to the culture and country from which it is developed.

The good news is that there are millions of bright people dedicated to just such a solution; the bad news is that there is no other option available which will provide for the National Security of the United States.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, September 27, 2014

DOOMSDAY CLOCK Moves


Barry, My Liege:

While there is a positive event which may serve to delay the DOOMSDAY event, several other events are more negative.

On balance, Humanity lost at least one more year and is now forecast to go extinct in 2146.

The positive event was the citizen march of about 300,000 people in New York together with similar demonstrations around the world; political pressure from masses of citizens is perhaps the most effective lobbying tool available. All marchers demanded political action on global warming. http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/9/21/climate-march-nyc.html

A negative event was the United States declaring war on ISIL. This is an indication that Muslim fundamentalism is gaining ground. There are many radical, barbaric Islamic organizations around the world : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_designated_terrorist_organizations

A second negative event is that Ebola has escaped from the areas of its origination and threatens to infect as many as one million people. The CDC predicts 1.4 million people will be infected : http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/cdc-ebola-could-infect-14-million-in-west-africa-by-end-of-january-if-trends-continue/2014/09/23/fc260920-4317-11e4-9a15-137aa0153527_story.html

It will probably move from Africa soon. The following article explores the control question but is out of date since it was published on September 3, 2014 : http://dailydigestnews.com/2014/09/window-is-closing-on-containing-ebola-cdc-says/

Additionally, several very unpleasant viruses have migrated to Central and South America; read about dengue fever here : http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/31/3443533/dengue-latin-america/

Your faithful servant,

Thursday, September 18, 2014

National Security vs. Bloodthirsty Quran


Barry, My Liege:

Let us be clear, the Quran is a bloodthirsty document, explicitly calling for violence.

One quote is below:

Quran (5:33) - "The punishment of those who wage war against Allah and His messenger and strive to make mischief in the land is only this, that they should be murdered or crucified or their hands and their feet should be cut off on opposite sides or they should be imprisoned; this shall be as a disgrace for them in this world, and in the hereafter they shall have a grievous chastisement"

Read more here : http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/quran/023-violence.htm

Rational people conclude that some of those who treat the Quran as a religious text may be violent criminals, using religion as an excuse for criminal behavior.

The National Security of the United States of America requires that all who will not renounce violence in the name of religion, nor disavow the Quran passages which call for violence, should be permanently barred from the country.

Your faithful servant,

Friday, September 12, 2014

UPDATE - Kuwait - ISIL

Barry, My Liege :

UPDATE Kuwait -

It appears likely that money to fund ISIL funnels through Kuwaiti banks and individuals.

Verify the accusation, then blow them up.

See it here: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/world/middleeast/private-donors-funds-add-wild-card-to-war-in-syria.html

UPDATE OIL

It is time to take out ISIL's oil smuggling networks. Cut off the revenue stream.

They will still get some cash from ransom, slavery, extortion and a few slippery oil smugglers, BUT we will not degrade ISIL until and unless we take away their money. Hit the fields, trucks, refineries - all of it. Some innocent slaves will die and we regret that. It is the price of war.

It is good that you commit the USA to take out ISIL, for they are evil.

But, My Liege, be aware that the logic of events may require that Assad be gone from Syria in order to complete the destruction of ISIL.

With Assad, there is a rally point for factions to gather both for and against ISIL or Assad.

Without Assad, there will be no rally point.

The campaign will be more successful if there is no rally point.

Your faithful srvant,


Ukrainian Situation, September 12, 2014

Mayank Kumār
Delhi College of Engineering

"Mike Russians are not doing it [i.e., taking Ukrainian towns]:

What Kiev fears most is that the "rebels" will take Mariupol, then proceed west along Highway E-58 taking Kherson (on the Dnieper River) to Melitopol. then onto Mikolaev (Nickolaev) - creating a massive "land bridge" between Ukraine and Crimea, then straight into Odessa. This is the ONLY reason Kiev has agreed to a "cease fire" and negotiations!

Odessa is the main port in Ukraine and without it, the Kiev government is dead. The rebel forces could simply head 60 Km to the northwest to link up with the extremely well-equipped and VERY pro-Russian Transdnestr army and the 2,000 Russian regular army troops their. (Transdnestr has TWICE voted overwhelmingly in referenda to declare its independence from Moldava and to join the Russian Federation.)

What many foreigners do NOT know is that southern Ukraine is VERY anti-Kiev, especially in Odessa. )Forget the "Odessa Massacre" in which 40-plus Odessans were burned alive in a fire set by Right-Sector fanatics. These Right-Sector folks were bussed in from Kiev and do NOT represent the people of Odessa.

Odessa, much like eastern Ukraine, especially hates to be "dictated to" by the oligarchs in Kiev - when the main source of income for Ukraine are the mines and industries in eastern Ukraine and the port of Odessa, also a literally a "tourist paradise" which draws HUGE numbers of Russian and Western tourists eager to throw away their money- which Kiev sucks away.

Thus, the rebel armies would be wlecomed as they moved along the southern coast to Odessa, with many people volunteering to fight the pro-Kiev forces. Such a military maneuver would split Ukraine in half, cutting off the Kiev government from the sea - and from its most profitable cities.

That is why Kiev MUST stop the rebel movement at Mariupol and is the SOLE REASON Kiev is now willing to enage in a "cease fire" and negotiations at this time.

I would add that I do NOT think that the people of Odessa would vote to join the Russian Federation, but would much prefer total INDEPENDENCE from the corrupt Kiev government, perhaps forming a FEDERATION with other oblasts in southern and eastern Ukraine, along with the Transdnestr Republic."

Friday, August 29, 2014

U S Policy Toward Syria

Barry, My Liege :

In several ways, our decision to stay out of the Syrian situation has helped our current policy choices.

Many people paid for our choices with their lives, pain and suffering through their involuntary uprooting to refugee position. We cannot ignore their sacrifice.

The overriding judgment remains - Assad is a butcher who must be killed.

The ghosts of his victims past and present demand it.

But, time has focused some of the forces opposing him into a single, evil faction, namely ISIL.

Here's how we should proceed :

1. Kill Assad with a bomb, a big bomb, not a nuke, but a really big one. It is a war, after all.

Maybe we lost a missile or it malfunctioned, or something. Maybe an ISIL suicide bomber made it into the palace. Who knows? Oops. Our sincere apolologies for any action we took which hastened his untimely demise. we will strive to ensure that it will not happen again. Our sincere condolences to the survivors.

2. Systematically destroy ISIL's war making equipment from the air regardless of where it is - Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran or Saudi Arabia. Allow no safe haven for ISIL.

3. Locate the banks which collect and transfer funds to ISIL. Blow them up. Especially the branch close to or in Syria.

4. Do not commit US combat troops to the ground; use air power and friendly forces to wither ISIL.

5. Contact Syria Army officers after Assad is dead with an offer: Stay and build a stable society under a temporary military government toward a goal of elections in five years. To do so, they must agree to swear loyalty to the new government, renounce the old including all Ba'ath party ties and allow a political officer from the non-ISIL opposition forces in every unit of more than 2000 men. The PO will report any infractions to a special court for prosecution.

Those who abide and commit to a new regime are allowed to serve. Those who refuse serve prison terms.

The locals - Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran and Saudi Arabia - agree to provide manpower and/or money to secure a peaceful Syria.

6. Construct secure refugee camps from neighboring lands with neighboring funds to give respite to the refugees.


As you understand, My Liege, the USA cannot fix this area. But, taking the actions above will lessen the evil there.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Russia Invades Ukraine, Starts WW III

Barry, My Liege :

Russian troops have been captured in Ukraine and Russian military convoys have crossed the border.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/russia-admits-soldiers-in-ukraine

Putin/Poroshenko talks are a smokescreen to hide the troop movements.

With a military response likely, WW III has begun.

This moves the HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK forward to 2147.

Your faithful servant,

Friday, August 22, 2014

UPDATE - ISIL - Kill 'Em All


Barry, My Liege :

New thoughts.

Some Brits and Yanks may die when we target ISIL. Shed no tears - they lose their privileges when they declare war on their country and innocent civilians and behead American journalists.

Targeting ISIL in Syria may help Assad - So what? Primary target is ISIL, temporary gains for Assad can't be helped. Don't give any safe havens.

While your remarks on ISIL [http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/transcript-president-obamas-remarks-on-the-execution-of-journalist-james-foley-by-islamic-state/2014/08/20/f5a63802-2884-11e4-8593-da634b334390_story.html] were heartfelt, Americans are reluctant to enter another war.

Rightfully so.

And yet, ISIL cannot continue its rampage of torture, slavery and mass killings.

It may not be a permanent solution, My Liege, but we seem to have the power to render them into the stone age.

We should do that.

Let's bomb every thing with wheels located in ISIL controlled areas.

Iraq? Yes.

Syria? Hell yes.

We can do it without American troops on the ground by ramping up the drone and airstrike campaigns.

Secure agreements and cooperation from both the EU and neighboring countries, then proceed to bomb them widely and thoroughly. Don't forget Shoulder mounted missiles as well.

They will be less a threat when they have only AK 47's and sniper rifles. Then we can rely on Kurds and Iraqis for ground troops.

The ISIL rampage has taken a year off the HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK.

It is time to get serious.

Your faithful servant,

Thursday, August 14, 2014

RATs Monsanto [Again] and Bayer [Real American Terrorists] Hide Bee Damage



Barry, My Liege :

When corporations buy science so that the science shows that corporate actions do not harm people when the reality is that their actions do harm people, they are terrorists.

Now it comes that a class of insecticide is killing bees at an alarming rate. If there are no bees, there will be no fruits, vegetables or flowers.

The insecticides are applied in huge amounts to entire fields of plants.

The bees are dying.

Scientists across the world are studying the interactions of "..neonicotinoid pesticides on pollinators and the impact of the EU ban on three neonicotinoid pesticides on farmers' crop growing practices."

Read the article by Dr. Joseph Mercola, DO, here : http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2014/08/12/neonicotinoids-bee-deaths.aspx?x_cid=20140812_nonlead_facebookdoc

The thing is, My Liege, both Bayer and Monsanto, both of which make significant profits selling the products, are providing grant money to some of the scientists in the study.

The conclusion is inescapable: Monsanto and Bayer are buying science so that their actions harming people for money will be unnoticed.

This is not acceptable, my Liege.

Your faithful servant,

Sunday, August 10, 2014

On Greed


Barry, My Liege :

The HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK in this space presents a gloomy future event for our species.

Let us be clear about the concept.

There will be no escape from this event, neither for the privileged nor the weak.

It will be Biblical in its proportions.

All will die.

The HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK's prediction is based on logical projections of current trends.

This raises two questions.

The first question asks whether or not the event is preventable with species-wide behavioral changes.

Regarding the first question: Even with resolute and extreme behaviorial changes, it is likely that the earth system is already damaged irreparably and cannot be repaired in time to save our species.

There remains a remote possiblity that such behaviorial changes, if instituted, may affect the event's outcome.

It is a remote possibility.

And, it is all we have.

The second question asks: What is the likelihood that our species can change its behavior sufficiently?

Regarding the second question, the collective behavior changes are so fundamental to our societies that it is HIGHLY unlikely that we will change in time to have any efffect.

Our current behaviors are driven by simple greed. It is not enough that we are greedy and see no fault in harming our neighbor's family and future for the sake of a monetary gain. We have made greed the basis of our economic system and have exalted it to a virtue.

The simple fact is that we cannot afford greed any longer.

Greed is bad.

Greed will murder 7 billion people through violence, disease and hunger.

Greed has always been a poison in our system, but now it is controlling.

If by some magic we can recognize that simple truth, perhaps we can change our decision making systems.

But, in order to change the event, we will need to make ALL decisions based on likely effects on our species.

While this space can suggest numerous specific actions toward the goal of saving our species, such discussions appear pointless until and unless a political consensus on the need for such changes arises.

Now, perhaps it will be enough simply to make the case while postponing discussions of specific remedies until our species presents the will for change.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Arctic Methane


Barry, My Liege :

One of the consequences of global warming is a melting of Arctic ice shelfs and tundra and a consequent large release of trapped methane gas into the atmosphere.

Large releases of this methane would be catastrophic for humanity since such releases would accelerate global warming significantly.

Although this process has already begun, it is not occurring rapidly enough for concern - at the moment.

For background, read this article :

http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/read/if-we-release-a-small-fraction-of-arctic-carbon-were-fucked-climatologist

This space will provide updates as they become avaiable.

Your faithful servant,

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

El Nino Odds Decline, But DOOMSDAY Clock Stays at 2149

Barry, My Liege :

The odds of an El Nino event this rainy season which would relieve the California drought have just declined.

See this : http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/30/1317666/-Megadrought-Huge-Surge-of-Pacific-Heat-Fails-to-Start-El-Nino-Heats-Planet-to-3-Warmest-Months

While this news has the potential of bad news for California and the Western United States, it does not justify moving the DOOMSDAY CLOCK at this time.

But, it bears watching should the drought possibility expand geographically to the Central Plains Bread Basket of the United States and other countries as well.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Nuclear Plant Failure Moves DOOMSDAY to 2149


Barry, My Liege :

As an attempt to compensate for continuing failures in nuclear power plants around the world and the resulting danger to humanity from radiation, United States nuclear power plant manufacturers proposed a modular approach.

The idea was to build new nuclear plants in stages so that costs could be reduced and so that safety could be increased.

It did not work.

It was more expensive and less safe than existing, faulty technologies.

Here is a discussion of the failure: http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Promises-of-easier-nuclear-construction-fall-short-5648628.php

Here's what the failure means.

First, we cannot rely on nuclear power as a safe power source for the future.

Since we as humanity will have less power available, the social stresses will increase. As those stresses increase, the path to our species die-off event comes closer.

Secondly, even if the new technology is improved so that the safety and cost considerations coincide with current technologies, the risks to humanity from radiation will increase as a result of additional nuclear plants.

Lastly, it is an additional demonstration that, as a species, we do not have the ability to manage nuclear power.

One of the continuing themes of DOOMSDAY is that the machines we design today are beyond the skills of the people who are tasked with their operation. For example, the 2013 airliner crash in San Francisco was a result of the pilots' inability to land the plane.

The new approach to nuclear plant construction validates that theme.

Your faithful servant,

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Superbugs Kill 3 Billion


Barry, My Liege :

What? You think the headline is overstated and hyperbolic?

I hope so, My Liege.

We both hope so.

But, but...........

There are several bacteria which have evolved and are now resistant to most antibiotics.

This means that hospitals keep them under control with extensive measures. Today, 2014, those extra-ordinary measures keep us safe from past scourges like TB and sepsis caused by staphylococcus aureus.

A longer list of the superbugs is below.

But, consider this My Liege : Hospitals try to operate with occupancy rates between 60% and 90%. These ratios ensure the best use of scarce resources like nurses, physicians and beds.

What will happen to the extraordinary measures taken today to control the superbugs when all the hospitals are faced with occupany of 200%, or 900%?

That's what will happen as we approach the Doomsday Event.

As populations outstrip food and water, sanitary conditions will deteriorate and violence will escalate.

Simply put, hospital staff will be overwhelmed and will be unable to prevent the superbugs from escaping to the general population. That will bring us face to face with massive epidemics of bacterial diseases for which we have no cure.

And, My Liege, this scenario does not acount for the super viruses like Ebola which are already killing many people.

Here is a list of some bacteria which have evolved and are resistant to most antibiotics [Source - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibiotic_resistance#Resistant_pathogens]:

1. Penicillin, methicillin, tetracycline and erythromycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) has now emerged as an epidemic that is responsible for rapidly progressive, fatal diseases, including necrotizing pneumonia, severe sepsis, and necrotizing fasciitis.

2. Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus: GAS) infections like necrotizing fascitis require supportive care in an intensive-care unit.

3. Streptococcus pneumoniae is responsible for pneumonia, bacteremia, otitis media, meningitis, sinusitis, peritonitis and arthritis; it shows increasing resistance to to penicillin and other beta-lactams

4. Multidrug-resistant Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium are associated with nosocomial infections.

5. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a highly prevalent opportunistic pathogen.

6. Clostridium difficile is a nosocomial pathogen that causes diarrheal disease in hospitals world wide. Clindamycin-resistant C. difficile was reported as the causative agent of large outbreaks of diarrheal disease in hospitals in New York, Arizona, Florida and Massachusetts between 1989 and 1992. Geographically dispersed outbreaks of C. difficile strains resistant to fluoroquinolone antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin, were also reported in North America in 2005.[

7. Salmonella and E. coli hospitalize and kill many people. Some strains of E. coli have become resistant to multiple types of fluoroquinolone

8. Acinetobacter baumannii - On November 5, 2004, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported an increasing number of Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections in patients at military medical facilities in which service members injured in the Iraq/Kuwait region during Operation Iraqi Freedom and in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom were treated. Most of these showed multidrug resistance (MRAB), with a few isolates resistant to all drugs tested.

9. Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing bacteria are a group of emerging highly drug-resistant Gram-negative bacilli causing infections associated with significant morbidity and mortality whose incidence is rapidly increasing in a variety of clinical settings around the world.

10. Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis is increasing across the globe, especially in developing countries, over the past few years. TB resistant to antibiotics is called MDR TB (Multidrug Resistant TB).

11. Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a sexually transmitted pathogen where antibiotic resistant strains predominate.

Your faithful servant,

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

World No-Fly Zones Hasten DOOMSDAY


Barry, My Liege :

There are many places today where armed groups possess Surface to Air Missiles [SAM's] capable of shooting down any plane; some of the missiles can down aircraft flying at more than 50,000 feet. As a reference, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was hit at 33,000 feet.

Humanity loses some of our capacity to adjust when our mobility is resticted by hostile groups with SAM's.

Here's a list of countries where many airplanes are at risk today :

1. Libya
2. Syria
3. Iraq
4. Israel
5. Gaza
6. Northern Ethiopia
7. North Korea
8. Somalia
9. Eastern Ukraine
10. Mali
11. Chad
12. Congo
13. Kenya
14. Yemen
15. Egypt's Sinai Peninsula
16. Iran
17. Afghanistan.
18. Central African Republic
19. Islamic State - parts of Syria and Iraq

Read this for details : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11297899

Any expansion of these no-fly zones hastens our species Doomsday Event.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

DOOMSDAY CLOCK - 2150 AD, It's Ticking

Barry, My Liege :

It may be comforting to think that our species Doomsday Event is more than 100 years in the future. If that's true, then we can just enjoy our time until then, right?

Rest assured, My Liege, that is not the case.

We will experience a constantly rising level of tragedy and violence until then.

Experts disagree on whether the Doomsday Event will be total or will leave a residue of 500 million people alive.

Consider that there are about 7 billion people alive today.

That means at least 6.5 billion people will die by the Event.

We will die from many causes.

Starvation and disease will take a toll as will violent conflicts.

All these exist today but will increase in severity over time.

Here are the active armed conflicts which took more than 1,000 lives in 2013 :

1. Israeli–Palestinian conflict, 1203 deaths so far in 2014

2. Afghanistan, 138 deaths so far in 2014

3. Somalia, 854 deaths this year

4. Nigeria, 5026 deaths this year

5. Pakistan, 2316 dead this year

6. Drug War, Mexico - 66 dead so far this year

7. Egypt, 79 dead so far this year

8. Syria, 28680 dead so far this year

9. Iraq, 7422 dead this year

10. Central African Republic, 1211 dead so far

11. South Sudan, 415 dead so far

12. Ukraine, 356 dead so far not including Malaysian Airline Flight 17

The list of additional conflicts which did not meet the 1,00 death threshold in 2013 is even longer, my Liege. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

It is likely that armed conflicts arise from groups of people who perceive that they are marginalized in their quest for food, water and shelter.

It is likely also that the number of people so marginalized will increase as the planetary boundaries are crossed more severely.

Your faithful servant,

Monday, July 21, 2014

HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK - 2150 AD


Barry, My Liege :

The DOOMSDAY CLOCK will note human actions where humanity fails to act collectively by reducing the time we have left. It will note instances of where we act collectively by extending the DOOMSDAY date.

As a species, our collective actions create the conditions for our demise in the forseeable future.

Science has recorded previous species die-offs on the Earth.

Humanity is susceptible to a similar species die-off or civilization collapse.

There are 9 planetary boundaries which, if crossed, will destroy the Earth's ability to support human life. [http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=iss_pub]

We have already crossed several boundaries according to journalist Alice Friedemann.

CLIMATE CHANGE - The boundary is 350 ppm of CO2, currently we are at 387 ppm. The average for June 22014 is 401.

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION - Aragonite saturation state in surface water boundary is 2.75 Omega units, currently we are at 2.90.

STRATOSHPERIC OZONE DEPLETION - Ozone concentration (Dobson Units) boundary is 276, we are at 283 today.

GLOBAL NITROGEN CYCLE - Rate of Nitrogen removal from atmosphere (million tons per year) - Boundary is 9, we are at 133 now.

RATE OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS - Extinction rate (species per million per year) - Boundary 10, currently we see more than 100 species go extinct per year.

We are close to crossing the boundary for other planetary boundaries.

GLOBAL PHOSPHORUS CYCLE - Phosphorus rate of flow into oceans (million tons per year) - boundary is 12, we are now at 10.

DEPLETION OF FRESH WATER (cubic km per year) - Rate of human consumption boundary 4000, currently we are at 2400.

LAND SYSTEM CHANGE - No quantifiable boundary, but we currently use 35% of the land surface for crops and animals. Little or no more arable land is available.

AEROSOL LOADING - Boundary unknown but damage is evident.

CHEMICAL POLLUTION - Boundary unknown, but damage to human health is well documented. Between 80,000 and 100,000 different chemicals are traded globally.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Saving Our Species


Barry, My Liege:

The climate is changing. Future changes will be hard on mankind. People will die.

Here is a link to the EPA climate projections: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Sadly, My Liege, our current systems of economics and politics are based on short term profits instead of our collective welfare.

As an example, read about the imposition and subsequent repeal of a carbon tax in Australia here: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/carbon-tax-refunds-to-hit-100m/story-e6frg6xf-1226978430115?nk=7d7a6ffb07e5cc736deeaaccfef45650

Without fundamental changes in our profit driven systems, it is possible that the Earth will cease supporting human life in the forseeable future, perhaps in the lifetimes of our great grandchildren.

Geologic history shows many worldwide species die-offs due to extreme droughts and other natural disasters.

We can hope that your grandchildren and great grandchildren will realize collectively that saving the human species requires changing our systems fundamentally in order to act collectively instead of selfishly.

If not, then your grandchildren and great grandchildren will need to cooperate with all humanity to colonize other planets.

There will be hard choices as we move to species preservation and away from indivdual wealth concentration.

Gratitude to Neil deGrasse Tyson for raising the question in Cosmos, Episode 11.

Now is the time to find and support the best and brightest minds in a quest to design system changes and also to design a colonization effort as a fail safe if our systems resist change.

My Liege, I do not suggest a government agency to hire people, but rather a dialog from your office about the possibilities looming in our collective futures. Such a dialog may encourage some brilliant minds to address our species-wide issues.

Today, we do not know the shape or direction of the changes we will make in 50 to 100 years, but we can and should encourage discussions about the challenges we face.

Your faithful servant,

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Ukraine, ISIS



Barry, My Liege:

The National Security of the United States is challenged by two issues: Ukraine and ISIS.

Ukraine is a basket case in the best of circumstances. It will need $20 billion financial aid in the next two years to avoid a humanitarian crisis. IMF proposals, if enacted, will make the situation worse by requiring severe austerity on a population already at risk.

It is likely that Eastern Ukraine will secede with Russia's armed support in the near future as the civil war already there escalates with covert Russian support. That will leave Western Ukraine as Europe's problem.

Our options are few, My Liege. We can continue arming the Kiev regime and contributing to a wider war or we can stand down and let Europe and NATO take the lead. We CANNOT send troops because that will lead to war with Russia.

It may be better to have a physically divided Ukraine than a single entity with the extreme tensions of holding an emotionally divided country together.

However, should Russia invade and subsume Eastern Ukraine, then all the former Soviet countries rightfully will be concerned about their future.

In that event, we will be back to the 1950's with a Cold War.

It appears that we are reduced to reacting to Putin's plans. And, Putin's end game is a mystery beyond my understanding.

ISIS represents the future of the Middle East. Climate severity will increase and the populations will be more restive.

NOTE - It appears that the ISIS folks have changed their designation to ISIL. Presumably they are touchy like many Muslims about real or imagined insults, so I will change to the ISIL designation if they merit further mention.

It may be a mistake to hold Iraq together. Perhaps it is better as three separate entities: Kurdistan, Shia Iraq and Sunni ISIS.

Our interests will be helped by an independent Kurdistan and attacked by ISIS.

ISIS seems to be a criminally funded [protection rackets, et.c.] and otherwise supported terrorist organization about to become a Sharia code state. We should work all angles short of armed force to weaken and destroy ISIS. Perhaps we can cut off or reduce its support by pursuading its supporters to withdraw their support.

It is an unpleasant situation, but as climate change and population growth work through the area, we can expect more such situations, My Liege.

Your faithful servant,

Sunday, June 15, 2014

UPDATE: PROJECT MINERVA and 2016 Elections

Barry, My Liege :

Even though it is too late for you to make a stronger mark on history, maybe you can guide your successor into some real changes.

Let's talk straight.

We need real change, My Liege.

We don't need pandering and BS and military studies of civil unrest like MINERVA [ see link below].

Specifically, we want our leaders to take back our government from moneyed interests and do what is right for the rest of us.

We voted for change and we got more of the same.

You won because you tapped into a yearning for real change - we wanted you to be Teddy Roosevelt.

You had a chance to be that when the Dems controlled both houses and the Presidency, but you blew it.

Yes, you did some good and necessary things, but now is the time for hard things, My Liege.

Now, we want our country back.

There's a good chance that we will elect a Dem President and both houses of Congress again because we are just fed up.

We are getting desperate, My Liege.

You can see a list of the things that need change here:
http://www.mkeever.com/owsplaneleven.doc

And, My Liege, I am concerned that the reaction of the DOD in today's world is to fund studies about tracking civil unrest as preparation for military action; see it here http://www.alternet.org/environment/pentagon-preparing-mass-civil-unrest?akid=11920.1151017.ibIDFF&rd=1&src=newsletter1003144&t=9


Your faithful servant,

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Spring 2014 Country Studies Published


The Mike P. McKeever Institute of Economic Policy Analysis (MIEPA) is pleased to announce the publication of its Spring 2014 country studies.

Two new countries, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan, have been added.

Bangladesh is analyzed by Specialist Syed Hassan; his analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/bangladesh.html

Uzbekistan is analyzed by Specialist Genrietta Lerner; her analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/uzbekistan.html

Additionally, four previously analyzed countries have been updated.

Burma/Myanmar is analyzed by Specialist Chai Jian; her analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/burma.html

Italy is analyzed by Specialist Ashish Neupane; his analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/italy.html

Japan is analyzed by Specialist Satomi Tomida; her analysis can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/japan.html

Tne United States of America has been analyzed by three Specialists, Specialist George Bustos, Specialist Hobie Smith and Specialist Mario Delgado; their analyses can be read at http://www.mkeever.com/usa.html

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Conservative Reactions To Picketty

Barry, My Liege :

Some earnest commentators have wondered why it is that few if any conservative writers have reacted to and tried to refute Thomas Picketty's masterful book CAPITAL IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY.

The lack of concern from the political right is easy to understand.

In the book, Picketty presents a convincing case that capital tends to accumulate into ever larger masses unless it is prevented from doing so, thus reducing equality world wide. Such a world naturally tends toward extreme inequality and reduced social justice.

Conservative writers' reactions, if there are any, will be first of all to ignore the thesis since many conservative writers have demonstrated a disregard of facts over many years and in many forums. Many conservative writers are more concerned with the 'correct' opinion and tend to ignore 'facts' or any 'reality' which disagrees with correct opinions.

Secondly, conservative opinion, if I understand it correctly, will be unconcerned with any inequality resulting from capital accumulations. Any such accumulations will likely be perceived as the 'natural order of things' which does not require any action or comment. It is the way things are 'supposed' to be.

Inequality is, after all, the source of wealth creation and all things good. A misplaced concern with 'equality' is a sure sign of liberal, nay socialist, tendencies and goes against the American grain.

Thus, we can expect few, if any, conservative arguments against Picketty's thesis and factual presentation.

Your faithful servant,

Monday, April 21, 2014

Piketty's Prognosis

Barry, My Liege :

As you know already, a new book by Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics titled CAPITAL IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY was published in 2013 by Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

In the book he documents the accumulation of capital into fewer and fewer hands along with an increase in wealth and income inequality from the middle of the 19th Century until 2010 in the United States, France, Britain and Germany.

One of his overarching themes is that there is nothing inherent in economics which will slow or reverse this movement toward extreme inequality in the foreseeable future.

In fact, our earlier expectation that rising economic growth would lift all boats and reduce inequality between classes was based on a study of the United States economy between 1914 and 1944. That study was fine as far as it went, but it turns out that the period in which inequality fell was a historical anomaly.

From this, I conclude that, unless we, My Liege, take decisive and drastic action, inequality will continue to rise until we have an economy ripe for revolution or depression.

Some of the actions we might take include a progressive tax on capital, confiscatory estate taxes and extremely high marginal tax rates.

Unless we voluntarily redistribute incomes and wealth, there is a high probability of a violent revolution to accomplish the same ends.

This space has made similar declarations previously ; I take no pleasure from this confirmation of earlier gloomy thoughts.

We are warned, My Liege.

Your faithful servant,