Russia After Putin

Inevitably, Putin will die. Worldwide opinion today turns anti-Putin. 

When he dies, there may be chaos in Russia. My bet is that he does not have a workable succession plan. Most dictators do not have one.

The West failed to assist Russia's move away from tyranny into a democratic state in the 1990's, after the Wall fell. Criminals amassed ownership of public property and installed a tyranny in Russia under Putin. 

I list below some steps that the West can take to facilitate Russia's transition to a democratically elected government and avoid a tyranny. A new Shadow Duma established with expats can start the process until a newly elected Duma arrives. Russians want to live in a Democracy and do not want a reinstallation of a tyrant successor to Putin. The West should help them do so.

The new government may choose to apply to join the EU as an Official Candidate for membership. However, the EU sets rigid requirements for Candidates who wish to join the EU. Click here for the EU enlargement process. 

Russia will not meet those conditions until Russia has a fully functioning elected government. I discuss here the necessary steps to join the EU eventually.

'In order to apply for EU membership, a country has to be European and respect the EU's democratic values. It also needs stable institutions guaranteeing democracy and the rule of law; a functioning market economy; and the ability to take on and carry out the obligations of the EU membership.Dec 6, 2023

A country can become an official candidate once it meets basic political, economic and reform criteria. It can then start formal negotiations on 35 chapters covering many different policy areas with the EU.'  Cloick here to see detailed steps

BEFORE THE EU APPLICATION

STEP 1: Establish a shadow Duma before Putin's demise using expat Russians who will meet and work on the EU Candidate process; and, begin writing a new Constitution. USA and EU can help organize and fund this. The shadow Duma can continue after Putin's demise until a newly elected Duma can meet. 

STEP 2: Establish coordination with top military officials to secure their agreement they will accept subordination to civilian authority established pursuant to the new Constitution. Discharge those who refuse.

Step 2.5. Enact martial law to prevent violence, election interference and possible overthrow of new government. 

STEP 3: Conduct elections to the new Duma with international supervision ensuring election integrity.

STEP 4. Nationalize all enterprises above an arbitrary limit such as 1,000 employees. The state will manage the enterprises. Later, the Duma can negotiate proposed acquisitions on a case-by-case basis with the objective of professional sustainable management and financial capacity

STEP 5. New government seeks outside cash assistance to endure that newly nationalized enterprises can meet their payroll until divested.

STEP 6. Appoint judges who support the new government to all judicial posts. Ensure each judicial appointment requires a public impeachment in the Duma to be overturned or compromised.

STEP 7. Establish Civil Service board to establish required credentials for new employees select and install government employees. Ensure that all meetings of the Board will be publicly viewable. 

STEP 8. New Duma will establish areas of interest for business enterprise regulation; then, it will write appropriate regulations.