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HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK - Moves forward to 2125 due to election of US President trump.

Estimate of the time that Humanity will go extinct or civilization will collapse. The HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK moves forward to 2125 due to US President trump's abandonment of climate change goals. Apologies to Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for using the name.

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Saturday, July 26, 2014

Nuclear Plant Failure Moves DOOMSDAY to 2149


Barry, My Liege :

As an attempt to compensate for continuing failures in nuclear power plants around the world and the resulting danger to humanity from radiation, United States nuclear power plant manufacturers proposed a modular approach.

The idea was to build new nuclear plants in stages so that costs could be reduced and so that safety could be increased.

It did not work.

It was more expensive and less safe than existing, faulty technologies.

Here is a discussion of the failure: http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Promises-of-easier-nuclear-construction-fall-short-5648628.php

Here's what the failure means.

First, we cannot rely on nuclear power as a safe power source for the future.

Since we as humanity will have less power available, the social stresses will increase. As those stresses increase, the path to our species die-off event comes closer.

Secondly, even if the new technology is improved so that the safety and cost considerations coincide with current technologies, the risks to humanity from radiation will increase as a result of additional nuclear plants.

Lastly, it is an additional demonstration that, as a species, we do not have the ability to manage nuclear power.

One of the continuing themes of DOOMSDAY is that the machines we design today are beyond the skills of the people who are tasked with their operation. For example, the 2013 airliner crash in San Francisco was a result of the pilots' inability to land the plane.

The new approach to nuclear plant construction validates that theme.

Your faithful servant,

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Superbugs Kill 3 Billion


Barry, My Liege :

What? You think the headline is overstated and hyperbolic?

I hope so, My Liege.

We both hope so.

But, but...........

There are several bacteria which have evolved and are now resistant to most antibiotics.

This means that hospitals keep them under control with extensive measures. Today, 2014, those extra-ordinary measures keep us safe from past scourges like TB and sepsis caused by staphylococcus aureus.

A longer list of the superbugs is below.

But, consider this My Liege : Hospitals try to operate with occupancy rates between 60% and 90%. These ratios ensure the best use of scarce resources like nurses, physicians and beds.

What will happen to the extraordinary measures taken today to control the superbugs when all the hospitals are faced with occupany of 200%, or 900%?

That's what will happen as we approach the Doomsday Event.

As populations outstrip food and water, sanitary conditions will deteriorate and violence will escalate.

Simply put, hospital staff will be overwhelmed and will be unable to prevent the superbugs from escaping to the general population. That will bring us face to face with massive epidemics of bacterial diseases for which we have no cure.

And, My Liege, this scenario does not acount for the super viruses like Ebola which are already killing many people.

Here is a list of some bacteria which have evolved and are resistant to most antibiotics [Source - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibiotic_resistance#Resistant_pathogens]:

1. Penicillin, methicillin, tetracycline and erythromycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) has now emerged as an epidemic that is responsible for rapidly progressive, fatal diseases, including necrotizing pneumonia, severe sepsis, and necrotizing fasciitis.

2. Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus: GAS) infections like necrotizing fascitis require supportive care in an intensive-care unit.

3. Streptococcus pneumoniae is responsible for pneumonia, bacteremia, otitis media, meningitis, sinusitis, peritonitis and arthritis; it shows increasing resistance to to penicillin and other beta-lactams

4. Multidrug-resistant Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium are associated with nosocomial infections.

5. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a highly prevalent opportunistic pathogen.

6. Clostridium difficile is a nosocomial pathogen that causes diarrheal disease in hospitals world wide. Clindamycin-resistant C. difficile was reported as the causative agent of large outbreaks of diarrheal disease in hospitals in New York, Arizona, Florida and Massachusetts between 1989 and 1992. Geographically dispersed outbreaks of C. difficile strains resistant to fluoroquinolone antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin, were also reported in North America in 2005.[

7. Salmonella and E. coli hospitalize and kill many people. Some strains of E. coli have become resistant to multiple types of fluoroquinolone

8. Acinetobacter baumannii - On November 5, 2004, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported an increasing number of Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections in patients at military medical facilities in which service members injured in the Iraq/Kuwait region during Operation Iraqi Freedom and in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom were treated. Most of these showed multidrug resistance (MRAB), with a few isolates resistant to all drugs tested.

9. Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing bacteria are a group of emerging highly drug-resistant Gram-negative bacilli causing infections associated with significant morbidity and mortality whose incidence is rapidly increasing in a variety of clinical settings around the world.

10. Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis is increasing across the globe, especially in developing countries, over the past few years. TB resistant to antibiotics is called MDR TB (Multidrug Resistant TB).

11. Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a sexually transmitted pathogen where antibiotic resistant strains predominate.

Your faithful servant,

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

World No-Fly Zones Hasten DOOMSDAY


Barry, My Liege :

There are many places today where armed groups possess Surface to Air Missiles [SAM's] capable of shooting down any plane; some of the missiles can down aircraft flying at more than 50,000 feet. As a reference, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was hit at 33,000 feet.

Humanity loses some of our capacity to adjust when our mobility is resticted by hostile groups with SAM's.

Here's a list of countries where many airplanes are at risk today :

1. Libya
2. Syria
3. Iraq
4. Israel
5. Gaza
6. Northern Ethiopia
7. North Korea
8. Somalia
9. Eastern Ukraine
10. Mali
11. Chad
12. Congo
13. Kenya
14. Yemen
15. Egypt's Sinai Peninsula
16. Iran
17. Afghanistan.
18. Central African Republic
19. Islamic State - parts of Syria and Iraq

Read this for details : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11297899

Any expansion of these no-fly zones hastens our species Doomsday Event.

Your faithful servant,

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

DOOMSDAY CLOCK - 2150 AD, It's Ticking

Barry, My Liege :

It may be comforting to think that our species Doomsday Event is more than 100 years in the future. If that's true, then we can just enjoy our time until then, right?

Rest assured, My Liege, that is not the case.

We will experience a constantly rising level of tragedy and violence until then.

Experts disagree on whether the Doomsday Event will be total or will leave a residue of 500 million people alive.

Consider that there are about 7 billion people alive today.

That means at least 6.5 billion people will die by the Event.

We will die from many causes.

Starvation and disease will take a toll as will violent conflicts.

All these exist today but will increase in severity over time.

Here are the active armed conflicts which took more than 1,000 lives in 2013 :

1. Israeli–Palestinian conflict, 1203 deaths so far in 2014

2. Afghanistan, 138 deaths so far in 2014

3. Somalia, 854 deaths this year

4. Nigeria, 5026 deaths this year

5. Pakistan, 2316 dead this year

6. Drug War, Mexico - 66 dead so far this year

7. Egypt, 79 dead so far this year

8. Syria, 28680 dead so far this year

9. Iraq, 7422 dead this year

10. Central African Republic, 1211 dead so far

11. South Sudan, 415 dead so far

12. Ukraine, 356 dead so far not including Malaysian Airline Flight 17

The list of additional conflicts which did not meet the 1,00 death threshold in 2013 is even longer, my Liege. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

It is likely that armed conflicts arise from groups of people who perceive that they are marginalized in their quest for food, water and shelter.

It is likely also that the number of people so marginalized will increase as the planetary boundaries are crossed more severely.

Your faithful servant,

Monday, July 21, 2014

HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK - 2150 AD


Barry, My Liege :

The DOOMSDAY CLOCK will note human actions where humanity fails to act collectively by reducing the time we have left. It will note instances of where we act collectively by extending the DOOMSDAY date.

As a species, our collective actions create the conditions for our demise in the forseeable future.

Science has recorded previous species die-offs on the Earth.

Humanity is susceptible to a similar species die-off or civilization collapse.

There are 9 planetary boundaries which, if crossed, will destroy the Earth's ability to support human life. [http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=iss_pub]

We have already crossed several boundaries according to journalist Alice Friedemann.

CLIMATE CHANGE - The boundary is 350 ppm of CO2, currently we are at 387 ppm. The average for June 22014 is 401.

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION - Aragonite saturation state in surface water boundary is 2.75 Omega units, currently we are at 2.90.

STRATOSHPERIC OZONE DEPLETION - Ozone concentration (Dobson Units) boundary is 276, we are at 283 today.

GLOBAL NITROGEN CYCLE - Rate of Nitrogen removal from atmosphere (million tons per year) - Boundary is 9, we are at 133 now.

RATE OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS - Extinction rate (species per million per year) - Boundary 10, currently we see more than 100 species go extinct per year.

We are close to crossing the boundary for other planetary boundaries.

GLOBAL PHOSPHORUS CYCLE - Phosphorus rate of flow into oceans (million tons per year) - boundary is 12, we are now at 10.

DEPLETION OF FRESH WATER (cubic km per year) - Rate of human consumption boundary 4000, currently we are at 2400.

LAND SYSTEM CHANGE - No quantifiable boundary, but we currently use 35% of the land surface for crops and animals. Little or no more arable land is available.

AEROSOL LOADING - Boundary unknown but damage is evident.

CHEMICAL POLLUTION - Boundary unknown, but damage to human health is well documented. Between 80,000 and 100,000 different chemicals are traded globally.

Your faithful servant,