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HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK - Moves forward to 2125 due to election of US President trump.

Estimate of the time that Humanity will go extinct or civilization will collapse. The HUMANITY DOOMSDAY CLOCK moves forward to 2125 due to US President trump's abandonment of climate change goals. Apologies to Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for using the name.


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Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Failure of Monetary Policy

Hillary, My Liege:

Professor Janet Yellen is a competent and diligent Federal Reserve Board Chair; but, any monetary policy actions taken by the FED will fail because the policies are based on the outdated Keynes General Theory.

Keynes' thesis was that lowering interest rates would encourage businesses to invest because their new projects would be profitable. And, the new investment would stimulate Aggregate Demand resulting in the 'virtuous cycle' of increased investment and increased consumer spending from more wages.

However, in today's world businesses do not invest regardless of low interest rates - nor do they refrain from investing due to higher interest rates - because they rightly forecast that expansions will not be profitable.

Expansions will not be profitable until and unless middle class incomes rise to the point where an income or two can support family necessities and an occasional luxury.

If consumers cannot buy luxuries, then the expansions that may have been encouraged in different times by lower interest rates will not materialize because businesses do not forecast adequate demand.

With regret, My Liege,

Your faithful servant,

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