Sunday, November 27, 2016
trump - A Balanced View, Before he Takes Office
After the election shock, perhaps it's time to take a more rational and less emotional view of things, although it is difficult to be objective.
By setting aside our disgust at his previous actions, perhaps we can think about his effect on The United States of America.
Perhaps he will not be a disaster for our country.
We can hope for that, until and unless he proves that hope false.
The United States of America is stronger than one person; our Constitution is designed with many checks and balances to prevent any one person from wreaking havoc.
But, and it is a big 'but', the President can cause real harm if he is left unchecked. And, since his party has a majority in both Houses of Congress, he has real power to cause damage.
On the positive side, he has moderated his racist campaign rhetoric even though hate crimes have increased. His extreme followers apparently feel empowered to commit those crimes after the campaign. Perhaps they will mellow out somewhat as some of them are convicted of hate crimes and go to jail. We shall see.
The Democrat party has an opportunity to slow down the Republican party's more excessive proposals by using tactics the Republicans used during Obama's first term. We pray that they do so.
Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, deportation, tax cuts for high income and wealthy people, financial deregulation, education privatization and similar proposals from the Republican Party will all be rooted in a false economic doctrine. Any Republican proposals in these and similar areas will cause direct harm to millions of Americans unless they are blocked.
All these policies were enacted under Bush and they caused the recession of 2008. trump's proposals are similar but more extreme.
Still on the positive side, he has proposed actions that will directly harm all the folks who voted for him. When they see that their family situations have not improved and have become worse in most cases, they will most likely vote Democrat in the mid-term and 2020 elections.
Until then, here are the major items of concern:
Our international enemies will test him and his demonstrated 'thin skin' together with the power of POTUS in military affairs may well lead us into a war. This can happen in calendar year 2017.
Financial deregulation extended under Bush is still in place and it is likely that banks will precipitate another recession in 2017 or 2018.
PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY
Calls to privatize Social Security will lead to reconsideration of that question. Additional pressure will be provided by the interest rate increases we face due to trump's threat as discussed above. The resulting impact on the Federal budget will lead to calls to eliminate Social Security from the Budget. Or, at the least, Social Security pensions will be reduced. If successful, this will result in massive poverty and misery among the elderly.
PRIVATIZE HEALTH CARE
Initiatives to manage health care costs will be under pressure. If successful, there will be massive cost increases while private insurance companies reap record profits at the expense of the ill among us.
trump's administration will attempt to reduce federal funding to all levels of education and all student aid programs. If successful this program will cripple our future economic growth by stifling new research and invention. It will also saddle college students with even higher levels of debt.
His Secretary of Education is committed to those outcomes.
TAX REDUCTION ON WEALTHY
Tax reductions for wealthy and high income individuals will be proposed. If enacted, they will increase Federal budget deficits and in further calls for cuts to Social Security payments and Medicare coverages.
MASSIVE DOLLAR DEVALUATION
Any such devaluation will make our economy even more precarious since the cost of our imports would skyrocket. Additionally, the real value of dollar denominated savings will plummet. There is already a massive overhang of dollars in world markets and any action to reduce the value of dollar denominated assets - like T-Bills - will increase pressure on the dollar. Additionally, the BRIC's are looking to form an alternative payment system for oil and any success in that effort will lead to further dollar pressure.
Any calls or actions to renegotiate or modify the Treasury Bill program may cause such a devaluation. Such actions can include Congress' failure to raise the debt ceiling in response to the increased deficits caused by the tax reductions and increased federal spending his proposed programs will require.
There is no doubt that our current trade policies directly harm most Americans while simultaneously enriching corporations. Although he has stated he wants to renegotiate those deals, there is a likliehood that his changes will benefit corporations more than people.
Citizens United - the Supreme Court case which opened the door to massive corruption - will probably be unchallenged and untouched.
SUPREME COURT VACANCIES
Unless the Democrat Party stonewalls Congress on new appointees, the new judges will take a stronger pro-corporate, anti-citizen stance on legislation.
May God have mercy on our souls.