Navalny's Anti Corruption Foundation
When the cameras are off, what does Putin really think of the West? He operates on a set of beliefs about Western publics and governments. Here are five points that shape his choices.
1) “You can’t handle discomfort”
Putin assumes Western voters will trade principles for lower bills. He treats energy cuts and price hikes as tools to exhaust voters and break coalitions.
He expects fatigue: after a few hard years, people will pressure leaders to “make it stop,” even if that means accepting a bad deal.
2) “Your democracies are weak”
Putin believes democracy makes you incapable of striking tough deals. Elected leaders watch polls, media, and the next election. Parliaments argue in public. Courts can delay or block action.
He sees this as his edge: as a dictator, he doesn’t need consent or transparency. He can absorb short-term pain, take unpopular steps, and simply wait you out.
3) “You don’t treat me as an equal—aggression is payback”
This isn’t about cost-benefit—it’s about status and resentment. Putin believes Western leaders look down on him and will never admit him into the “big club.”
In that frame, aggression becomes revenge and a demand for recognition. He assumes every deal hides a trap, so he moves first—hedging, breaking terms, and keeping deniable channels open.
4) “You fear nuclear escalation”
Putin counts on nuclear threats to scare audiences, divide allies, and slow support—even when the military balance hasn’t changed. The headlines alone do half the work.
When the West holds back out of fear, aid slows and options shrink.
5) “You want ‘normal life’ back—you’ll accept any ceasefire”
Putin assumes public fatigue will do the work. If there is a “peace” on paper, he keeps the land he seized, uses the pause to rearm, and restarts the war when it suits him.
He expects the West to prefer calm headlines now over hard guarantees that last.
Why this matters
If you treat these beliefs as opening offers, you will chase short-term calm and end up with fragile deals that collapse.
Ceasefires without firm guarantees become pauses for rearmament. Prices and risks rise later, not fall. Seeing these beliefs for what they are allows you to set rules that survive headlines and election cycles.
How to respond
Treat Putin’s system like a mafia regime. Sanctions should hit his inner circle—the fixers, front companies, and asset-holders who move his money and enforce his will. That means asset freezes, seizures, and secondary penalties for evasion.
ACF maintains evidence-based priority lists and dossiers to help governments target the right people and close loopholes.
Thank you for your support, Navalny’s team
