Barry, My Liege :
It is appropriate to forecast what would be the effects of a Romney Presidency on our economy, even though such an exercise approaches politics. Nevertheless.................
Since he states that he would follow the economic policies of G W Bush, it is a simple matter to see what key indicators were when Bush took office in 2001 and compare them to when he left office in 2009. Then we can apply the percentage changes to our key indicators today and forecast where we would be after 8 years of a Romney Presidency.
DOW JONES AVERAGE
The DJ was about 10800 when Bush took office and finished at 10600.
But, there was a large drop to about 8000 and recovery back to 10600. Now it is about 12100.
We can forecast a Dow ending in similar range as the beginning, but a huge panic at some point in the Romney Presidency.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Bush inherited a 5.0% unemployment rate and finished with a 9.9% rate.
We can forecast a doubling of the unemployment rate during a Romney Presidency.
TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT
Total non-farm jobs were about 132 million when Bush took office and were about 130 million when he left - a drop of 2 million jobs or about 2%.
This masks the fact that total jobs grew to about 138 million by 2008, but fell back to 130 million by 2009. Total jobs now are about 139 million.
A Romney Presidency would bring little or no long term job growth.
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
The median home price was about $162,000 when Bush took office. It rose to about $230,000 in 2008 and is now about $170,000.
A Romney Presidency would lower home prices further.
TOTAL DEBT OF THE UNITED STATES
Our national debt was about $5.6 trillion when Bush took office and it rose to $11.9 trillion when he left.
We can forecast a doubling of the debt under a Romney Presidency.
BANK REGULATION AND PANICS
Bush fostered a climate of non-regulation for banks with a resulting panic and economic meltdown.
We will see the same under Romney.
SOCIAL SECURITY
Bush made an attempt to privatize Social Security - Romney will do the same. If successful, life for senior citizens will deteriorate rapidly.
Your faithful servant,
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